2035 National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals Face Challenges

The government has proposed a national greenhouse gas reduction target (NDC) of 53% to 61% by 2035 compared to 2018 levels. However, an analysis by the National Assembly Budget Office indicates that achieving this goal with current policies will be challenging. The report warns that without additional reduction measures in key emission sectors such as power, industry, and transportation, reaching the 2035 target and the 2050 carbon neutrality goal will be difficult.

In a report titled 'Assessment of Major Sector Reduction Pathways for the 2035 NDC' released on July 12, the Budget Office utilized an Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to analyze the feasibility of the government's proposed reduction pathways. The analysis concluded that if current reduction policies and industrial structures remain unchanged, achieving the target will be difficult.

South Korea is currently implementing an NDC to reduce greenhouse gases by 40% by 2030 compared to 2018 levels. In November of last year, the Presidential Committee on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth (now the National Climate Crisis Response Committee) confirmed a range target for the 2035 NDC of a 53% to 61% reduction from 2018 levels.

The 53% target is based on a linear reduction pathway, which aims for annual reductions at the same rate from 2018 to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In contrast, the 61% target reflects a more aggressive reduction scenario that incorporates an accelerated initial reduction pace.

The Budget Office predicts that if current policies remain in place, greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 will only be reduced by 43.5% compared to 2018 levels. Factors such as the slow pace of renewable energy expansion and the deceleration of electrification are expected to impact the achievement of the target.

In contrast, the report suggests that achieving a 61% reduction compared to 2018 levels will require maximizing currently available reduction measures, including expanding clean power, electrifying industrial processes, and increasing the adoption of eco-friendly vehicles. However, this would necessitate a level of emissions reduction comparable to that seen during periods of significant economic downturn.

The Budget Office also noted that given the proposed targets, the lower limit of 53% may be perceived as the de facto goal during the implementation process.

The report identifies the power sector as the most critical variable. Although the power sector has achieved the most significant reductions since 2018, it will require the largest additional cuts moving forward. This is necessary to accommodate the rapidly increasing demand for electricity while expanding the share of renewable and non-carbon power sources.

In 2024, the power sector accounted for 31.6% of the country's total greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the 61% reduction target by 2035, an additional reduction of approximately 148 million tons of CO₂ equivalent from 2024 levels will be required.

The industrial sector is also highlighted as a key area for reductions. Energy-intensive industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and cement have limited capacity for reductions due to their reliance on fossil fuels in production processes. Low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen reduction steelmaking, process electrification, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are being considered as alternatives, but challenges remain regarding cost and technology commercialization.

In the transportation sector, the report emphasizes the need for greenhouse gas reductions through the expansion of electric vehicle adoption, increased public transportation use, improved fuel efficiency, and higher biodiesel blending rates.

The Budget Office recommends that to achieve the 2035 target and ensure a pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050, additional reduction measures must be secured. This includes expanding new reduction technologies such as hydrogen and investing in research and development (R&D) while establishing a supportive regulatory framework to maintain ongoing reduction capacity.

Gwon Il, head of the Industrial Support Analysis Division at the Budget Office, stated, "Current reduction measures alone will not suffice to achieve the 2035 NDC, so effective policies that reflect market conditions and the pace of technological advancement must be established along with a continuous reduction pathway."