Kim Yoon-deok, the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, stated that he is actively considering the option of partially releasing the greenbelt to supply housing if necessary. Although he has opposed the conversion of greenbelt land in principle, his perspective has changed since taking on the responsibility for housing supply. His commitment to addressing the housing supply shortage is commendable. However, the release of greenbelt land should not be used merely as a symbolic gesture to demonstrate supply intentions. More important than the decision to release land is the ability to construct homes on that land in a timely manner.
The greenbelt in Seoul accounts for about a quarter of the city’s area as of 2024. While the total area is significant, much of it consists of mountainous and green spaces, limiting the amount of land suitable for large-scale development. The government mentioned the possibility of releasing the Seoul greenbelt in 2018 and 2020, but these plans were thwarted by opposition from the Seoul city government and controversies surrounding environmental and urban management issues. The Seoul city government has agreed to a limited release focused on areas with low conservation value to ensure housing supply for future generations, with the Seoripul district selected as a new development site. The key issue is not whether to release land, but rather which land to utilize and under what conditions.
Above all, lessons from the 3rd New Town project must be heeded. Most of the key districts in the 3rd New Town were secured through large-scale greenbelt releases. The government transitioned areas with relatively low conservation value into large housing sites, but even the fastest area, Incheon Gyeyang, is not expected to see its first residents move in until December 2024, nearly eight years after the initial announcement. The 3rd New Town project illustrates that securing land through greenbelt release does not guarantee a swift supply.
It is encouraging that the government is pushing to start construction on 18,200 housing units in the 3rd New Town this year. However, it is crucial to connect planned housing units to actual construction and occupancy. If compensation, relocation, permits, infrastructure, and transportation measures do not align, delays may occur at various stages, leading to bottlenecks later in the project. Transforming large-scale land designations and supply announcements into homes ready for occupancy is a completely different challenge.
The already decided release of the Seoripul district will also serve as a test of the government's execution capabilities. The Ministry of Land aims to shorten the typical 56-month process from district designation to construction for 2,000 units in the Seoripul 2 district, targeting a start date in December 2028, more than two years earlier than usual. Even if additional releases are considered, the government must avoid repeating the delays seen in the 3rd New Town regarding compensation, permits, and infrastructure development. The greenbelt release is not an immediate solution to fill occupancy gaps. Without procedural streamlining, it may only add another long-term supply plan.
If the greenbelt is to be utilized, the conditions must be clear. It should be limited to areas that have already been damaged or urbanized, with relatively low conservation value and sufficient proximity to workplaces and public transportation. Plans for securing public housing, preventing speculation, and recovering development profits should be presented alongside any release decisions. Randomly releasing outer green spaces could exacerbate urban sprawl and increase burdens on transportation and infrastructure.
The government must provide not only new site proposals but also a concrete execution plan that encompasses existing projects. It should disclose compensation, land development, housing construction, and initial occupancy targets for each district, along with a timeline for each step and the expected reductions in duration. The 3rd New Town serves as a precedent that without execution capabilities, supply will be delayed even with greenbelt releases. If additional releases are considered, the government should first propose ways to normalize existing sites. What the government needs to prove is not the speed of presenting new sites, but its ability to resolve conflicts and build homes on time. Supply should be evaluated based on construction and occupancy, not merely on the area released or the announced quantities.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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