Jia Qingguo, a professor at Peking University's School of International Studies, has suggested that the Democratic Party could potentially gain control of both the House and Senate in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. He noted that trust between the United States and its allies has been significantly undermined by the policies of President Donald Trump, making it difficult for the Democrats to fully restore past alliances even if they regain power.
According to Jia, speaking at the 2026 China Global Forum in Singapore, key factors influencing the midterm elections include the timing of the end of military conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, as well as rising prices due to the ongoing Middle East war. He emphasized that high oil prices could significantly affect voter sentiment in the U.S. He also predicted that domestic political disputes and media coverage would play a crucial role in shaping the election outcome.
Jia pointed out that historically, the ruling party often loses control of either the House or Senate during midterm elections. He highlighted that a key point of interest in this election will be whether the Republican Party loses its majority in both chambers.
Regardless of the election results, Jia noted that the U.S. alliance system is undergoing structural changes. He explained that during Trump's first term, allies were shocked by the treatment they received from the U.S. but hoped for normalization of relations under former President Joe Biden. However, he argued that Trump's potential return to power and subsequent policies have shattered those expectations.
As a result of these changes, Jia assessed that allies no longer view the U.S. as a reliable partner. He described a 'two-legged strategy' where allies seek to maintain and strengthen security cooperation with the U.S. while also exploring alternative security measures. This reflects a desire to reduce dependence on the U.S. and diversify risks rather than completely sever ties.
Jia emphasized that the political landscape in the U.S. has fundamentally changed. Even if the Democrats regain power, he believes it will be challenging to return to the previous form of relations with allies. As U.S. allies begin to adjust their security strategies in light of potential policy shifts, restoring trust that has been eroded will not be easy.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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