Japanese security experts have raised concerns that the artificial island China is constructing in the South China Sea could become a "fortified forward base." On October 15, Senior Researcher Ohara from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation stated in an interview with Japanese media that the 3,000-meter runway being built on the artificial island could become a "very important military base." Senior Research Fellow Takahashi Sugio from the Japan Defense Research Institute also noted that a fortified area is forming in front of Hainan Island, a key location for the Chinese military.
This analysis is echoed by other military experts. According to Reuters, Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source intelligence analysis platform PLATracker, predicted that the base under construction could develop into one of the most significant military outposts in the South China Sea. He emphasized that it could serve as an additional military facility that the U.S. would need to respond to in the event of a crisis involving Taiwan.
Colin Koh, a maritime security expert in Singapore, analyzed that this facility could serve as a bastion to protect China's nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines. It would enhance surveillance capabilities in the waters surrounding Hainan Island, supporting submarine operations.
The artificial island in question is Antelope Reef, part of the northern Paracel Islands (known as Xisha Islands in China). While China currently exercises effective control over the reef, Vietnam and Taiwan also claim sovereignty over it. China has been conducting large-scale land reclamation since late 2025, creating an artificial island covering approximately 6 square kilometers, and is currently constructing the runway and related infrastructure.
Analysis of satellite images taken on September 25 by Reuters indicates that ground preparation and material transport for the runway construction are underway. Experts anticipate that, considering China's previous pace of runway construction in the South China Sea, the runway could be paved by the first half of 2027, with the first aircraft potentially landing as early as mid-2027.
Once the runway, port, radar, and communication facilities are established, China could increase the deployment of fighter jets and military aircraft in the northern South China Sea, enhancing maritime patrol and surveillance activities. If aerial refueling operations become possible, it would also improve the sustainability of air operations. This could aid in monitoring the waters approaching Hainan Island's submarine base and help deter U.S. military operations in a crisis.
China has officially denied that this project is for military base construction, claiming it is for civilian purposes such as weather forecasting and marine scientific research. Nevertheless, if Antelope Reef connects with existing Chinese military outposts in the South China Sea, it could expand the Chinese military's surveillance and operational range, increasing the military burden on neighboring countries. The potential military use of China's artificial island construction is expected to heighten tensions in the South China Sea among the U.S., China, Vietnam, and other neighboring countries.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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