With less than a month until the 2027 College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) on November 19, this year's exam is expected to unfold in a highly uncertain environment due to changes in the applicant pool and the unique circumstances of being the last year of the current testing system. Lee Man-ki, director of the Education Evaluation Institute at Yuwon, analyzed five key variables that could significantly impact the admissions landscape.
1. Shift to Social Studies for Science Students Disrupts Natural Science Admissions
The most notable variable is the trend of science students opting for social studies instead of science subjects. The proportion of applicants choosing only social studies has reached 69.6%, while the number of students taking two science subjects has plummeted by 43.8% compared to last year, according to the September mock exam.
Lee stated, "With fewer students taking science subjects, it will become more challenging to secure top grades, while the influx of science students into social studies will raise the cutoff scores, creating a difficult situation for both groups. This structural change in the natural science admissions landscape could significantly alter the advantages and disadvantages depending on whether universities apply additional points for science subjects in regular admissions."
2. Fluctuating English Difficulty Raises Concerns Over Minimum Score Requirements
The inconsistent difficulty level of the English section is also causing confusion among test-takers. Last year's CSAT saw a 1st grade pass rate of 3.11%, indicating a challenging exam, but this year, the September mock exam showed a sharp increase to 15.54%.
Lee warned, "It is highly likely that the actual CSAT will be much more difficult than the September mock exam. Students should not be overly optimistic about meeting the minimum score requirements based solely on their mock exam results or consider a 2nd grade score as a guaranteed outcome."
3. Record Number of Repeat Test Takers Increases Competition Among Top Students
The total number of test-takers this year is similar to last year, but the proportion of repeat test takers (including graduates and those who took the high school equivalency exam) has risen to 35.6%, the highest level in 23 years since the 2004 academic year. Notably, the number of repeat test takers aiming for medical school is estimated to be around 90,000, the largest ever.
Lee noted, "The influx of top-tier repeat test takers means that current high school seniors may see their percentile rankings or grades drop even with the same raw scores. This poses the greatest threat to students near the minimum cutoff scores."
4. Potential Changes in Korean and Math Difficulty Levels
In the September mock exam, the Korean section was more difficult while math was relatively easier, with 2,741 students achieving perfect scores in math. However, there is a possibility that the actual CSAT will see a reversal, with Korean becoming somewhat easier and math becoming more challenging.
Lee explained, "If the difficulty of math is adjusted to restore its discriminative power, students who chose calculus may regain an advantage in standard scores, while those who opted for statistics may face relative disadvantages."
5. Final Subject Selection Creates Pressure for Stable Admissions
Starting in the 2028 academic year, the subject selection system will be abolished, leading to a complete overhaul of the CSAT. Students who do not perform well this year will face a 'no exit' situation, having to retake the exam under a completely different system.
Lee predicted, "The risk of having to retake the exam is greater than ever, which is likely to result in a trend toward more stable admissions during the regular application period compared to previous years. While the cutoff for medical school admissions may decrease due to an increase in slots (approximately 490), the actual decline may be less than expected due to the concentration of newly established regional medical selection and top-tier repeat test takers."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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