On March 25, 2022, in Jeddah, a coastal city in Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea, thick black smoke billowed from beyond the Formula One Grand Prix circuit, where the world’s fastest cars were racing. Just over 10 kilometers away, a missile attack struck a fuel storage facility owned by the state oil company Aramco. The attack was carried out by the Houthi rebels from Yemen, marking a moment of embarrassment for the Middle East's largest military power, which spends tens of billions annually on defense and has adopted advanced American air defense systems.
1. Who are the Houthi rebels? From rural insurgents to a missile-firing army
The Houthi rebels control significant areas in northwestern Yemen. From 2004 to 2010, they engaged in the 'Saada Wars' against the Yemeni government forces. Initially, the Houthis were a local armed group that fought with rifles and light weapons, gaining combat experience through prolonged guerrilla warfare and mountain battles against government troops. In 2014, they seized the capital, Sana'a, gaining access to military facilities and weapon systems previously held by the government. This included a substantial acquisition of tanks and ballistic missiles, transforming them from a local militia into a formidable military force. With military support from Iran, a fellow Shiite power, the Houthis have since operated ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Iran has not only supplied weapons but also provided assembly and modification technology, aiding the Houthis' growth.
2. Why did Saudi Arabia enter the Yemen war? A need to protect its alliances
Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority nation, views the Houthi rebels as a proxy force for Iran. The kingdom believes it must counter Iran's expanding influence, which has spread from Iraq and Lebanon to Syria and now threatens Saudi Arabia's southern border. This regional power struggle has led to border clashes, with the Houthis engaging Saudi forces in 2009. Saudi Arabia could not allow a hostile force to control all of Yemen.
In 2011, following the Arab Spring protests, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been in power for 33 years, was ousted. His vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, took over in 2012, but the transitional government struggled with political and economic crises. During this turmoil, the Houthis rapidly expanded their influence, capturing Sana'a in September 2014. Cornered, President Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia in early 2015 after the Houthis advanced into southern Yemen, threatening to take over the entire country.
In March 2015, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against the Houthis, marking its deep involvement in the Yemen war. The kingdom justified its actions by claiming it aimed to restore the internationally recognized Hadi government. Strategically, if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance of the Red Sea fell into Houthi hands, it would threaten Saudi oil exports and international shipping routes. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia mobilized nearly 185 aircraft from nine countries, including the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan, with Saudi Arabia contributing 100 of those aircraft.
3. Why is Saudi Arabia struggling against the Houthis? Despite high defense spending, rebels prevail
The Houthis have expanded their power by capturing major cities in Yemen. The country has a population of about 40 million, with the U.S. State Department estimating that 70-80% live in Houthi-controlled areas, particularly in the western highlands and along the Red Sea coast. In contrast, the eastern regions controlled by the Yemeni government, such as Hadhramaut and Mahra, are sparsely populated deserts. The Houthis now control about one-third of the territory but govern a population of around 30 million, providing them with a broader base for recruitment and taxation.
Saudi Arabia, a leading military power, spends billions on defense. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Saudi Arabia's defense budget reached $83.2 billion last year, ranking it eighth globally. This is approximately 1.7 times more than South Korea's $47.8 billion defense budget. Since the 1970s, Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in its military, consistently ranking among the top ten in global defense spending. In fact, it ranked third in defense expenditures in 2015 and 2017, following the U.S. and China.
Despite this astronomical spending, Saudi Arabia has struggled to suppress the Houthis for over a decade. Military experts attribute this to a lack of combat experience. Wolf Christian Paes, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK, told Bloomberg, "Winning a war is not just about equipment and money. Training, morale, and leadership determine victory or defeat." Natasha Lindstedt, a professor at the University of Essex, noted in a Forbes article that Saudi Arabia has prioritized conspicuous weapon purchases over addressing structural weaknesses in its military.
Some analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia has intentionally kept its military weak to prevent coups. Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the Saudi monarchy has maintained a weak military to avoid the fate of other regimes that have fallen to coups, such as those in Egypt in 1952, Iraq in 1958, and Libya in 1969. The Saudi royal family has established a National Guard loyal to the monarchy, creating a divided command structure to prevent military power from consolidating. While this has prevented coups, it has also resulted in disjointed military operations.
In recent weeks, Houthi attacks have penetrated deep into Saudi territory. Since October 6, the Houthis have launched ballistic missiles and drones at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha Airport in the south. On October 8, a Saudi Airlines passenger plane on the runway was destroyed, killing the captain and two others. On October 10, a ballistic missile struck Riyadh Airport's terminals 3 and 4, killing 13 and injuring over 300. So far this month, at least 17 people have died and more than 330 have been injured in airport attacks. Civil aviation has been disrupted, with the Saudi Civil Aviation Authority closing Riyadh Airport and foreign airlines like Lufthansa and Air India halting flights to the city. The airport partially resumed domestic and some international flights on October 25, but terminals 3 and 4 remain closed. The eastern Dhahran Airport was also attacked on October 11.
The United States is also taking precautions. On October 21, the U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of non-essential personnel and their families from its embassy in Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have threatened to target energy infrastructure, raising concerns in the global oil market. Following the Houthis' announcement of renewed attacks on Saudi facilities on October 22, Brent crude futures surged over 4% to exceed $113 per barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange. For South Korea, which relies heavily on oil imports from Saudi Arabia, this situation is particularly concerning.
Now, Houthi missiles reach the gates of Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has proclaimed its intention to host the 2030 Riyadh Expo and the 2034 World Cup, aiming to attract global visitors. However, it struggles to protect even its airports from Houthi missiles. Simply accumulating advanced weaponry does not equate to military strength. For 11 years, Saudi Arabia has been paying the price for building its military on sand.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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