In November 2024, Donald Trump regained the White House, and the Republican Party reclaimed the Senate while maintaining control of the House of Representatives. His slogan of making America great again resonated with voters frustrated by high inflation, distrustful of Washington politics, and eager for a stronger America. This marked the beginning of Trump's unrestrained dominance over both Congress and the executive branch.
Fast forward two years, and the midterm elections on November 3 are presenting a starkly different picture. The Democratic Party is not only aiming to reclaim the House but is also eyeing a majority in the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans are struggling to defend districts and states they once considered safe. Discontent with Trump's governance is shaking up the electoral landscape, prompting him to promise $5,000 to every adult American if the GOP secures both chambers of Congress.
'Safe Republican Districts' Turn into Battlegrounds
Midterm elections traditionally pose challenges for incumbent presidents, as they serve as a referendum on their performance during the first half of their term. In the 2018 midterms, during Trump's first term, Democrats gained 41 seats in the House, reclaiming the majority. The political environment has worsened since then.
Major media outlets, including The Washington Post, have identified seven key battlegrounds: Michigan, Iowa, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. All but Michigan currently have Republican incumbents. For Democrats to increase their Senate seats from 47 to 51, they must hold Michigan and gain four additional seats in the other competitive districts.
As Democrats threaten traditionally Republican strongholds, known as 'deep red' areas, Trump is making last-minute campaign stops in key battlegrounds, promising large-scale infrastructure projects and cash incentives. Alaska, which gave Trump a double-digit victory in the recent presidential election, is now seeing a tight race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. Trump has instructed the Justice Department not to immediately certify close election results in Alaska and has offered a $1 million reward for reports of voter fraud. In Texas, a Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1993, Trump-backed Ken Paxton is facing a tough challenge from Democrat James Talarico. The Republican advantage in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas is also uncertain.
Many voters who supported Trump in 2024 were not necessarily enamored with traditional Republican conservatism but were hopeful for promises to lower living costs and improve the economy. However, tariffs have driven up prices on imported goods, and the war in Iran has increased energy costs, undermining Trump's image as a savvy businessman. Analysts suggest that young male and Hispanic voters who supported Trump four years ago are now drifting away, posing a significant challenge for the GOP.
Exploiting Personal Trauma for Political Gain
Trump's personal super PAC, MAGA, is mobilizing substantial funds to support Republican candidates in competitive districts. In the Ohio gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has stirred controversy by featuring the mother of Democratic candidate Amy Acton in his advertisements. The mother accuses her daughter of being a liar and argues against her election as governor. The controversy stems from the fact that Acton and her mother have been estranged for decades. Acton has previously disclosed that she was sexually abused by her stepfather as a child, who fled after being charged with the crime. This advertisement, which politicizes personal trauma, has drawn criticism even from within the Republican Party. The negative tone of political advertising has reached new lows, with distorted claims about opponents supporting terrorism or being mentally unstable, and even AI-generated synthetic videos appearing in the campaign.
Inflation and War Weigh on Trump's Campaign
The primary issue in this election is the cost of living. Grocery prices, housing costs, healthcare expenses, and gasoline prices are daily realities for voters. Tariffs are at the center of the inflation debate. Trump has positioned tariffs as a negotiating tool to assert American interests against foreign governments and companies. However, the burden of tariffs often falls on consumers and businesses, creating a paradox where policies intended to protect Americans are raising their living costs.
Moreover, the war in Iran is exacerbating economic pressures. Prolonged conflict and instability in the Middle East are affecting international oil prices and transportation costs, which directly impact gasoline and diesel prices that voters encounter daily. The agricultural sector and transportation industries, which heavily rely on diesel, are particularly sensitive to rising fuel costs. This economic discontent is transforming traditionally Republican agricultural regions into battlegrounds.
Trump's greatest dilemma is that the grievances he capitalized on in the 2024 election are now directed at him. While he could criticize rising prices as a failure of the government during his time in opposition, he must now take responsibility for the outcomes of his policies. What was once a strength for Trump—the economy—has become a vulnerability.
The final variable in this election is the so-called 'shy Trump' vote, referring to hidden support for Trump that may not be captured in polls. Voter turnout will be crucial: whether the Democratic base mobilizes in anger or if Trump's supporters coalesce without being reflected in surveys will be key points to watch.
Will a Democratic Victory End Trump's Dominance?
If Democrats reclaim the House, Trump's approach to governance will inevitably change. However, the equation of 'Democratic victory equals the end of Trump’s policies' does not hold. If Democrats control the House while Republicans maintain the Senate, passing new legislation or amending existing policies will be challenging. The president's veto power and potential filibusters in the Senate could obstruct legislative progress, even if Democrats achieve a majority.
Furthermore, the more Congress is stalled, the more likely Trump will resort to executive orders and administrative powers. This means he could seek ways to bypass congressional approval on tariffs, trade measures, and immigration policies. A politically cornered president might choose to soften his policies, but he could also opt for more aggressive measures to rally his core supporters.
If Democrats gain control of both the House and Senate, the situation will change significantly. The Senate plays a crucial role in confirming cabinet members, ambassadors, and federal judges. The White House may face constraints in appointing loyalists to government and judicial positions, and conflicts over budgets and government oversight could intensify. The House could initiate hearings and issue subpoenas to investigate the Iran war, immigration enforcement, and allegations of corruption involving the president's family. They could even attempt to impeach Trump. However, impeachment does not guarantee removal from office; a two-thirds majority in the Senate is required for a conviction.
What Trump may fear most is not a single defeat but the loss of political momentum. If Congress shifts to the opposition party, it will become difficult to achieve policy successes, and within the Republican Party, there may be growing efforts to distance from Trump as the 2028 election approaches. Once the midterms conclude, American politics will effectively shift into campaign mode for the next presidential election.
Tariff Wars and U.S.-China Competition: Diplomacy Becomes More Uncertain
While the midterm results may not immediately alter U.S. foreign policy, they could change the scope and cost of Trump's actions. Tariff policy will be the first test. Democrats may push to reverse or limit tariffs, arguing they burden American consumers and businesses. However, if the president seeks to maintain tariffs using executive authority and trade laws, immediate policy shifts may not be guaranteed even if Democrats control Congress.
The U.S.-China power struggle is also not a matter that can be resolved simply by a change in administration. Concerns about China's technological rise, supply chain dominance, advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, and security in the Taiwan Strait are shared across both parties. Even if Democrats win, it is unlikely that the hardline stance toward China will disappear; rather, the methods and coordination may change.
The Iran war presents a more direct political variable. As the conflict drags on, energy prices and military burdens will increase, and Trump may feel compelled to seek an exit strategy to alleviate domestic political pressures. He might pursue a ceasefire or negotiations after the election, but there is also a possibility that a president eager for quick results could escalate military actions to declare victory before withdrawing. In either case, a midterm defeat does not necessarily herald the arrival of peace.
What South Korea Should Prepare for Is Not 'Post-Trump'
Regardless of the outcome, the next two years of Trump's presidency will likely continue to involve U.S.-South Korea trade and security issues. There are numerous challenges to address, including tariff negotiations, investments in the U.S., semiconductor and battery supply chains, the Alaska liquefied natural gas project, nuclear-powered submarines, nuclear fuel reprocessing, and the transfer of wartime operational control of U.S. forces in South Korea.
Expectations that a Democratic-controlled Congress will lead to favorable changes for South Korea should be approached with caution. While some Republican-led trade pressures on South Korea may ease, U.S. industrial protectionism and efforts to counter China are rooted in bipartisan interests. Conversely, it cannot be assumed that Trump will ease pressure on South Korea simply because he loses the midterms. If a president with limited legislative options becomes more reliant on executive measures, South Korea may face increased negotiation burdens. Even if both chambers of Congress shift to the Democrats, it is unrealistic to expect that U.S.-South Korea issues will resolve automatically; instead, finding common ground between Democratic industrial and security policies and South Korean interests will be essential.
In future U.S.-South Korea negotiations, the most important task will be to clarify our principles. We must distinguish whether U.S. demands are mere verbal declarations or translate into legal and financial obligations. Large-scale investment projects should be evaluated step by step based on profitability, risk-sharing, funding, and domestic industrial impact, rather than committing to total amounts upfront. Projects like the Alaska gas pipeline should be assessed separately from political announcements and actual feasibility. Upholding the value of the U.S.-South Korea alliance is fundamentally different from unconditionally shouldering the costs of uncertain projects.
On November 3, American voters will choose not only 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate but also determine whether Trump's remaining two years will be a time of constrained power or lead to further unchecked dominance. A Democratic victory does not mean Trump will disappear, nor does Republican resilience guarantee the healing of political divisions in the U.S.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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