With the Democratic Party gaining control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, pressure is expected to mount on President Donald Trump's North Korea policy. While there are analyses suggesting that the U.S. administration will lead diplomatic efforts, the legislative branch's control over budget decisions could restrict the implementation of agreements. Even if a deal is reached between the U.S. and North Korean leaders, subsequent actions such as sanctions relief and economic cooperation may face obstacles from Congress, making the South Korean government's diplomatic response increasingly important.
According to diplomatic sources on November 5, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated at a press conference on October 31 that Congress's role is defined by budget and oversight, emphasizing that "the central role in foreign policy decisions lies with the executive branch." This suggests that even with the Democratic Party in control, Trump's diplomatic directives are unlikely to change.
As a result, there is little expectation for a significant shift in policies related to the Korean Peninsula, such as tariffs, defense cost-sharing pressures, and the transfer of wartime operational control. Analysts note that the Democrats do not have enough seats to override Trump's veto, limiting their ability to completely overturn foreign policy. However, they can use their budgetary powers, oversight authority, Senate confirmation rights, and legislative powers related to sanctions and trade to slow down the pace and scope of the Trump administration's policy initiatives.
Some analysts believe that the direct impact of changes in Congress on negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea will be limited. For instance, in the case of a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement, the U.S. administration must submit the agreement to Congress, which will undergo a review process under the Atomic Energy Act. Typically, this review period lasts 90 days, and if Congress does not pass a joint resolution of disapproval, the agreement can take effect.
Even if a disapproval resolution passes, Trump can veto it, requiring a two-thirds majority vote in both chambers to override his veto.
Regarding North Korea dialogue, analysts suggest distinguishing between the possibility of a summit and the actual implementation of agreements. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, noted that a dialogue between leaders does not require congressional approval, allowing Trump to pursue a "top-down" approach to diplomacy for foreign policy achievements in his second term. However, he cautioned that easing sanctions is tied to congressional authority, presenting a high barrier to achieving negotiation outcomes.
Jeong Seong-jang, deputy director of the Sejong Institute, stated, "Trump may become more eager to meet with Kim Jong-un to achieve diplomatic success." However, he warned that North Korea's expanding ties with China and Russia may reduce its urgency for negotiations with the U.S., suggesting that Kim may not respond to a meeting unless the U.S. offers significant concessions.
There are also predictions that North Korea may view the Democratic Party's control of Congress as a destabilizing factor for dialogue. Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Far East Institute, remarked that North Korea negatively remembers the Democratic Party's emphasis on denuclearization and human rights, as well as the pressure from the Biden administration. He suggested that even if Trump, whose political standing has weakened, reaches an agreement, ensuring its implementation may be challenging.
Counterarguments have been raised. Jeon Bong-geun, an honorary professor at the National Diplomatic Academy, argued that from Kim Jong-un's perspective, there is little downside to engaging in U.S.-North Korea dialogue. He suggested that if Trump does not prioritize denuclearization, North Korea may still seek to leverage a meeting to enhance its international standing and gain sanctions relief or economic cooperation.
The South Korean government has stated it will closely monitor the U.S. election results and movements from both sides in the North Korea dialogue. A Unification Ministry official commented, "Trump's willingness for dialogue with North Korea is strong, and North Korea has also mentioned preconditions for dialogue through Kim Yo-jong's statements. Given this situation, we will observe without making premature judgments."
There are also calls for the South Korean government to strengthen both summit diplomacy with the U.S. administration and congressional diplomacy targeting the U.S. Congress, as well as 1.5-track diplomacy. Yang emphasized the need to share North Korea dialogue proposals between South Korea and the U.S. while expanding congressional diplomacy, particularly in the House of Representatives. Jeong also noted the importance of sharing and discussing drafts of proposals that Trump may present to Kim during their potential meeting.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.