Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) issued a warning on November 9 to former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and three other party members who left the chamber just before a vote on a consumption tax cut bill. This marks the first time the LDP has disciplined a former party president and prime minister under its rules. With the House of Councillors deliberation on the bill set to begin on November 11, the ruling party is four seats short of a majority and must prevent further defections while seeking cooperation from opposition parties.
The bill, which passed the House of Representatives on November 6, proposes to reduce the consumption tax rate on food and beverages from the current 8% to 1% for two years starting April 1, 2027, and to provide support payments to workers based on income. Ishiba, along with former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yuko Obuchi, former Minister of Economic Planning Hajime Funada, and LDP Tax Policy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihisa Furukawa, abstained from the vote by exiting the chamber just before it took place.
The LDP leadership required the four lawmakers to submit explanations by noon on November 9, and they were notified of the disciplinary action around 4 p.m. the same day, approximately four hours after the deadline. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, LDP Secretary-General Shinichi Suzuki stated at a press conference that leaving the chamber just before the vote was inappropriate, emphasizing that “it is better to act quickly than to delay.”
Within the party, there were calls for more severe penalties, such as recommending their expulsion, but the leadership opted for a warning, which is the second-lightest of eight disciplinary measures outlined in party rules. The LDP had previously issued warnings to lawmakers who exited during a vote on postal privatization in 2005, but did not take action against former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi when he abstained from a vote on cash payments in 2009, considering his past contributions as party president.
LDP Faces Seat Shortage
The urgency of the warning is linked to the upcoming House of Councillors vote. According to the Asahi Shimbun, Suzuki indicated that the decision was made with the House of Councillors deliberation in mind, and an LDP official warned during a party executive meeting on November 9 that if similar incidents occur in the upper house, more severe penalties would be imposed. The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party are currently four seats short of a majority in the House of Councillors. Even with the support of the Japan Conservative Party, they still lack two seats, prompting the ruling party to seek cooperation from independent lawmakers, as reported by the Yomiuri Shimbun. However, if the bill is rejected in the House of Councillors, it can still be reapproved in the House of Representatives with a two-thirds majority of present members, a threshold the ruling party exceeds.
The Asahi Shimbun reported that the decision reflects the intentions of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is mindful of potential movements from critics ahead of next autumn's party presidential election.
On November 9, Ishiba stated to reporters that he accepts the disciplinary action “solemnly,” but questioned, “How can I do this work if I am afraid of punishment?” He recalled the introduction of the consumption tax, asserting that “even when popularity is low, doing what is necessary for the country has been the tradition of the LDP.”
Behind Ishiba during his remarks was a photograph of former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, who introduced the consumption tax to Japan in 1989 when Ishiba was a first-term lawmaker. The Asahi Shimbun characterized the tax cut as a reversal of the path the LDP has taken.
The four lawmakers cited the lack of funding measures in the bill to lower the consumption tax, which is a source of social security revenue, as their reason for leaving. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), Furukawa warned in his explanation that without specific funding measures, the weakening yen and rising interest rates could worsen household finances.
Previously, Takaichi estimated during a House of Councillors representative question session on October 8 that the tax cut would reduce annual tax revenues for both the central and local governments by approximately 4.3 trillion yen. He stated that the government would secure funding through tax exemptions and a review of subsidies and funds without relying on deficit bonds, assuring that “there will be no holes in social security funding.” However, he did not provide the overall financial burden, including the cost of support payments.
The special committee in the House of Councillors that will review the bill has more opposition members (20) than ruling party members (19), indicating that the ruling party will need cooperation from the opposition. The opposition Komeito party is demanding an expansion of the support payment eligibility and measures to alleviate the burden when the tax rate returns to normal in two years, while the Constitutional Democratic Party is calling for an expansion of local tax deductions. If the ruling party agrees to increase the scale of support or deductions, how to secure funding will become a contentious issue once again.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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