North Korea could expand nuclear stockpile to over 400 warheads by 2040, expert warns

By Park Kyung-ah Posted : November 26, 2025, 15:10 Updated : November 26, 2025, 15:11
North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (center) visits a shipyard in an undisclosed location in the reclusive country on March 7, 2025, in this photo released by the state-run [North] Korean Central News Agency the following day.

SEOUL, November 26 (AJP) - North Korea is estimated to currently possess up to 150 nuclear warheads, with the potential to expand to over 400 by 2040 if its production capabilities increase, an expert said at a forum in Seoul on Wednesday.

Lee Sang-kyu, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), pointed out that the ongoing expansion of nuclear plants and other facilities under the oversight of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will significantly accelerate the country’s nuclear arsenal.

His speculation came after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier revealed its findings on new uranium enrichment facilities in Yongbyon, North Pyongan Province, suggesting increased enrichment activities there.

According to his analysis, North Korea appears to have around 150 warheads, including 115 to 131 uranium-based and 15 to 19 plutonium-based ones. These figures are significantly higher than previous estimates by major international research institutions, which suggested around 50 warheads.

Kim projected that the number could grow to 243 warheads by 2030 and 429 by 2040.

When asked about North Korea's nuclear-powered submarines, he said their combat readiness and key equipment are not yet fully developed, requiring significant time to complete, though potential technical support from Russia cannot be ruled out.

* This article, published by Economic Daily, was translated by AI and edited by AJP.

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