As the United States and Iran prepare to sign a ceasefire agreement, experts predict that Gulf states may begin to adopt independent security strategies in the wake of the conflict. Analysts suggest that these nations could maintain their security alliances with the US while diversifying their strategic partnerships.
On June 12, Al Jazeera reported that "Gulf states are likely to seek long-term security solutions after the war, which they did not initiate." One possibility is that Middle Eastern countries will form various mutual defense treaties. The report cited a mutual defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September 2022, which stipulates that an attack on one country would be considered an attack on both.
There is also speculation that traditionally pro-US Gulf nations may seek to improve relations with Iran, although this may prove challenging. During the recent conflict, Iran referred to Gulf Islamic nations as "brother states" while launching a significant number of missiles and drones at them. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) restored diplomatic relations with Iran in 2022, and Saudi Arabia reestablished ties with Iran in 2023 with China's mediation. However, both countries faced missile attacks from Iran during the war, with the UAE suffering significant damage to its image as a safe global city due to missile strikes in Dubai. The Washington Post reported on June 12 that the Qatari government secretly contacted Iran in March to request that its natural gas facilities be excluded from airstrike targets, but ultimately, the facilities were damaged in an Iranian attack.
Gulf states are also expected to accelerate the development of alternative transport routes to mitigate the geopolitical risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy transport. Saudi Arabia has been exporting oil mined in its eastern regions through pipelines to the western city of Yanbu, from where it is shipped to countries like South Korea. The UAE has diverted oil to the Port of Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, for export. However, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq lack alternative routes and are left vulnerable. Simon Babon, a professor at Lancaster University in the UK, noted that while there will be attempts to replace the Strait of Hormuz through significant investments over the coming years, the transport capacity will likely be smaller than that of the Strait.
Philip Gordon, a researcher at the Brookings Institution and former National Security Advisor, suggested that the conflict may accelerate the trend of Gulf states and Israel pursuing independent paths. In a recent publication, he identified key geopolitical characteristics that may emerge after the Iran war, including a pursuit of autonomy from the US by Gulf states, increased divisions within these nations, and a rift between Israel and both the US and Arab states. Gordon stated that while Arab nations will not cease to rely on the US as a primary partner providing investment, military equipment, and political support, they will seek to diversify their partnerships with potential suppliers and allies from Europe, South Korea, and Australia to prepare for uncertainties regarding the US.
Middle East political expert Majoub Al-Juwairi pointed out in an interview with Al Jazeera that discussions around security frameworks like Iran's 2019 "Hormuz Peace Initiative" may be revived, though he views the feasibility as low. He questioned, "What kind of non-aggression treaty can be proposed while missiles are being launched at neighboring countries?" He added that while it may sound theoretically valid, it would be meaningless unless Iran's behavior changes.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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