California, often regarded as the wealthiest state in the U.S., is witnessing a decline in public school enrollment due to falling birth rates.
According to a report by local media outlet SF Gate on June 12, the number of public school students from kindergarten through 12th grade in California has decreased by 75,000 this year compared to the previous year. Over the past decade, the total decline has reached 420,000 students.
Education experts attribute the primary cause of this decline to the overall decrease in birth rates across the United States. While the situation is not as critical as in countries like South Korea and Japan, Americans are having fewer children. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that the U.S. birth rate has steadily declined since 2007. The Hill, a U.S. congressional publication, reported that the total fertility rate for women of childbearing age in the U.S. is projected to hit a historic low of 1.6 in 2024. This ongoing decline in birth rates is impacting the public school system. Last year, the number of newborns in the U.S. was 3.6 million, down from 4.3 million in 2007. This reduction will be reflected in kindergarten enrollment numbers in about five to six years.
The decline in student enrollment is also evident in Silicon Valley, a global hub for IT companies. Reports indicate that the number of graduating students in San Jose is decreasing as well. In 2022, a public elementary school in Oakland, near San Francisco, closed due to declining enrollment, prompting parents and local residents to stage a four-month occupation protest. William Chavez, a social studies teacher at Woodrow Wilson High School in Los Angeles, noted, "Since I started working here, the number of students has been decreasing. While there aren't drastic changes each year, the trend is clear over time."
This decline in student numbers is not unique to California. In southern Texas, where many residents have moved due to rising living costs, there was a decrease of 76,000 students in grades K-12 for the 2025-26 school year. Michael Kirst, an emeritus professor at Stanford University and former chair of the California State Board of Education, stated, "This decline is happening everywhere. There are very few areas that are not experiencing this trend."
According to a report by The New York Times last month, major U.S. cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, are seeing significant drops in student enrollment. The issue is that as student numbers decrease, the funding schools receive also diminishes proportionately. Consequently, some school districts are facing budget cuts, and discussions about school closures are becoming more prevalent.
However, the migration of families seeking more affordable living conditions is also contributing to the decline in student numbers. For example, Portland, Oregon, which has 44,000 public school students, is experiencing a drop in enrollment due to both declining birth rates and residents moving to other areas. Kimberly Armstrong, the Portland superintendent, remarked, "People are choosing to raise their children in different areas, often moving to suburbs with more affordable housing." The district is anticipating a budget shortfall of $50 million for the next academic year, which could lead to school closures or staff layoffs, according to the NYT.
As of 2023, 80.4% of K-12 students in the U.S. attend public schools, 7% are enrolled in charter schools, and 12.6% are in private schools or being homeschooled.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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