Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iturup Island in the southern Kuril Islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan, on August 13. This marks his first visit since taking office in 2000. It is only the second time a Russian head of state has visited the Kuril Islands, the last being Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Kunashir Island in 2010.
Japanese media analyzed on August 14 why President Putin chose to visit the Kuril Islands now, reflecting on why he had not done so in the past 26 years.
The Asahi Shimbun reported that Putin, as the de facto highest authority, had previously avoided visiting the islands to foster expectations in Japan regarding the resolution of territorial disputes and to encourage economic cooperation. Medvedev, while serving as president and prime minister, visited the islands four times. In contrast, Putin held 27 summit meetings with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe while refraining from visiting during ongoing negotiations over a peace treaty that included territorial issues.
The situation changed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Japan, alongside the U.S. and Europe, imposed sanctions on Russia, prompting Moscow to designate Japan as an 'unfriendly country' and suspend peace treaty negotiations concerning the Northern Territories.
Shigeki Hakamada, an honorary professor at Aoyama Gakuin University, told the Yomiuri Shimbun that Putin's previous avoidance of the islands was likely due to the economic benefits he believed could be gained from Japan, which had been purchasing resources like natural gas. However, he suggested that Russia no longer views Japan's economic power as significant enough to warrant such cooperation, indicating that this visit was meant to signal Japan that it would not prioritize the territorial issue moving forward.
Nevertheless, Russia has not entirely abandoned its economic relations with Japan. Daisuke Abiru, a senior researcher at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, interpreted the visit as a move to slow political relationship improvements while maintaining economic ties.
In fact, the visit coincided with Japan's efforts to resume contact with Russia. According to the Nikkei, Japan, which relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its oil imports, has been seeking to diversify its energy sources since the U.S. attack on Iran in February. Since then, Japan has been exploring ways to improve relations with Russia. In May, officials from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs visited Russia to discuss improving the business environment. In July, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the first time in five years during a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in the Philippines.
However, Russia did not view Japan's actions as sufficient for improving relations. Abiru explained that Russia's demands included the lifting of economic sanctions and the resumption of direct flights. After Japan did not respond to Russia's proposal for a vice-ministerial meeting and expanded support for Ukraine through NATO, Russia concluded that Japan was not showing a willingness to improve relations. Abiru interpreted the visit as a message from Russia to Japan to reset their bilateral relationship.
Koizumi Yu, a professor at the University of Tokyo's Advanced Institute of Industrial Technology, noted that Russia tends to increase pressure when it perceives that the other side is willing to make concessions. He analyzed that the visit was meant to demonstrate that Japan's recent actions were insufficient for improving relations and that Russia was demanding a policy shift, including the easing of sanctions. The Nikkei interpreted Putin's criticism of Japan's sanctions against Russia just a day before the visit, along with his statement that he was ready to cooperate with all neighboring countries, as a demand for Japan to take further action if it wanted to improve relations.
Putin's increased pressure on Japan is not solely aimed at prompting a policy shift. The Nikkei suggested that his assertive stance is also a reflection of the difficulties Russia is facing. The invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth and a half year, remains in a stalemate despite the deployment of prisoners and North Korean troops. Additionally, drone attacks on Russian territory by Ukraine have intensified, and rising gasoline prices are beginning to affect Moscow's citizens.
The burdens of prolonged warfare are evident in economic indicators. Russia's real GDP grew by 1.3% in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, but high interest rates and weak investment continue to stagnate the economy. Military spending has surged, leading to the largest budget deficit since the invasion of Ukraine in the first half of the year. Prolonged Western sanctions have also exposed distortions in the wartime economy, including labor shortages.
Efforts to improve relations with the U.S. for the purpose of easing sanctions have not progressed as hoped. Russia sought to improve relations with the U.S. following the inauguration of Donald Trump's second administration, culminating in a summit in Alaska last August, but no follow-up meetings have occurred. The Nikkei reported that Russia's expectations for sanctions relief through improved U.S. relations are also diminishing.
As domestic public opinion wavers due to the prolonged war, Russia is approaching its parliamentary elections in September. According to the Yomiuri, 60% of Russians desire peace negotiations, while Putin's approval rating has dropped from the 70% range to 65%. The ruling United Russia party's approval rating remains around 30%.
Shinji Hyoudo, a researcher at Japan's Ministry of Defense, analyzed that the primary purpose of Putin's visit was to send a message to the Russian domestic audience. He suggested that Putin aimed to project an image of a strong leader who does not compromise on territorial issues with foreign nations ahead of the parliamentary elections, while also demonstrating a commitment to addressing local grievances to boost patriotism. During his visit to the Kuril Islands, Putin emphasized, "We have the genes of winners," and visited a local school to view an exhibition about soldiers from the Far East who participated in the invasion of Ukraine.
In response to Putin's visit, Japanese Minister Sanae Takaichi criticized on August 13 that it further worsened anti-Russian sentiment in Japan and made long-term recovery of relations more difficult. However, the Nikkei assessed that while Japan seeks to rebuild relations with Russia to diversify its energy sources, it has failed to establish a consistent diplomatic strategy toward Russia. It warned that without a comprehensive strategy considering international relations, Japan could find itself exposed to pressure from both China and Russia.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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