The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 are poised to significantly influence President Donald Trump's economic and trade policies. With the Democratic Party increasing its chances of regaining control of the House of Representatives, the key question remains whether they can also secure the Senate. However, even if Democrats gain congressional power, experts suggest that changing tariffs or policies regarding the Iran conflict may not be straightforward due to presidential authority and veto power.
A report from the British think tank Chatham House, released on October 22, indicates that the authority to make foreign policy decisions is concentrated in the executive branch, making it unlikely for major changes in tariffs or Iran-related policies in the short term after the midterms.
Trump's public statements suggest he may continue a hardline stance on tariffs and military actions. In a Fox News interview on October 25, he stated that he could raise tariffs on the U.S. auto industry by as much as 50% if necessary, while also emphasizing the need for continued pressure on Iran, suggesting that either a deal or further military action should be considered.
Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to persist after the midterms, influenced by various factors including congressional composition, judicial rulings, executive responses, and political pressures stemming from inflation.
The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the authority to impose tariffs and regulate trade policy. If Democrats become the majority party, they could pursue legislation to eliminate certain tariffs or adjust tariff rates, as well as require congressional approval for any additional tariffs imposed by the executive branch. However, implementing these changes may prove challenging.
The president has the power to veto legislation. To override a veto, a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate is required. Even if Democrats gain a majority, they would face limitations without Republican cooperation.
Achieving bipartisan consensus is also difficult. Chatham House notes that over the past decade, despite changes in congressional composition, no viable bipartisan alternatives have emerged to oppose the tariff policies promoted by the president.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen previously stated through Reuters on October 20 that the executive branch's tariff authority is quite robust, arguing that a Democratic-led Congress would have limited capacity to block Trump administration policies.
Moreover, even if the U.S. Supreme Court were to challenge the legal basis for certain tariff measures, the Trump administration could still pursue new tariff policies under other laws, such as Section 301 of the Trade Act and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
However, Congress may increase oversight and political pressure on the administration. William Allen Rainsy, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), pointed out that Congress could impose burdens on the administration's tariff policies through hearings, investigations, and demands for documentation.
As for the Iran conflict, it is uncertain whether it will come to an end or see a reduction in military tensions immediately following the midterms. Congress has significant tools to check war powers, including the War Powers Act and budgetary authority. The War Powers Act requires congressional approval for military hostilities exceeding a certain duration. However, the president's veto power complicates any practical limitations. Congress could also attempt to cut war funding through control of the defense budget, but such actions have not been executed to date.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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