Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a surge in oil-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The prolonged military conflict between the United States and Iran, coupled with concerns over disruptions to key oil supply routes, has driven international oil prices higher.
According to Koscom ETF Check on October 26, the 'TIGER Crude Oil Futures Enhanced (H)' recorded a return of 14.67% over the past month, ranking first among all ETFs. The 'KODEX WTI Crude Oil Futures (H)' followed closely with a return of 14.14%. The 'RISE U.S. S&P Oil Production Companies (Synthetic H)' and 'RISE U.S. S&P 500 Energy (Synthetic)' reported returns of 8.13% and 7.09%, respectively.
The rise in oil prices is attributed to military tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions. Recently, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field, amid reports that the U.S. and Israel are considering resuming airstrikes against Iran. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have also escalated, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply.
Oil prices have surged significantly. On October 23, Brent crude for December delivery closed at $116.72 per barrel, up 3.1%, marking the highest level since April 29. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also rose by 3.8%, finishing at $103.27 per barrel. On the same day, U.S. stock markets reacted to the spike in oil prices and heightened tensions in the Middle East, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.23%, the S&P 500 down 0.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.21%.
Seo Sang-young, a managing director at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, "International oil prices have surged significantly due to the expansion of military conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over oil supply disruptions." He noted that the Houthi rebels' attacks on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and Yanbu port, along with Aramco evacuating employees from its Dhahran headquarters, have heightened fears of further attacks on energy facilities.
He added, "Incidents of oil spills from tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, increased attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns over the resumption of U.S. military actions against Iran have all contributed to the growing geopolitical instability."
However, there are forecasts that international oil prices may experience volatility depending on the restoration of oil transport networks and the normalization of maritime shipping. Kim Kwang-rae, a researcher at Samsung Futures, remarked, "The future oil market will need to monitor both the speed of pipeline restoration and the normalization of maritime transport in the Red Sea simultaneously." He cautioned that even if pipelines are restored, the ongoing threat of Houthi maritime attacks could still significantly restrict Saudi Arabia's exports to Asia.
He further noted, "Conversely, even if military tensions in the Red Sea ease, it will be difficult to increase export volumes in the short term if the pipeline's transport capacity is not sufficiently restored. The pipeline requires physical repairs, and for safe navigation in the Red Sea, the military threat from the Houthis must be alleviated. Additionally, considering that the U.S. is refraining from direct military intervention, it will not be easy for Saudi Arabia to resolve the situation independently."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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