The United States has significantly depleted its stockpile of interceptor missiles due to the conflict in Iran, raising concerns that it could exhaust its supply within days in the event of a large-scale war with China.
According to a report from the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation on August 12, senior researcher Jim Payne analyzed that the U.S. stock of the latest Patriot interceptor missiles (PAC-3 MSE), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and naval interceptor missiles SM-6 and SM-3 is insufficient for a prolonged conflict with China.
The report estimates that the U.S. has not secured even 10% of the interceptor missiles needed for a long-term engagement with China. It warns that even a limited missile strike on U.S. military bases by China could lead to the depletion of interceptor missiles within days of the conflict's onset. Key U.S. military installations, such as Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, could be rendered ineffective early in the conflict.
The Iran conflict has exacerbated the U.S. missile shortage. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated that between February and July, the U.S. used approximately 65% of its Patriot interceptor missiles, and the stock of THAAD missiles has decreased by at least 38% compared to pre-war levels. The exact inventory of U.S. military weapons remains classified.
Production rates also pose a challenge. The Heritage Foundation noted that maintaining current production capabilities could take up to 86 years to secure the necessary stockpile for a war with China, depending on the type of weapon.
The U.S. Department of Defense is taking steps to increase production. The Army has requested funding in the fiscal year 2027 budget for 2,798 PAC-3 MSE missiles and 857 THAAD missiles, a significant increase from the 320 PAC-3 MSE and 25 THAAD missiles requested for fiscal year 2026.
The Heritage Foundation recommends that the U.S. expedite the production and stockpiling of interceptor missiles while also preparing rules of engagement to allow for preemptive strikes on missile launchers and related facilities before China can launch an attack. Additionally, it calls for the utilization of naval interceptor missiles and air defense capabilities, as well as the expansion of production facilities by defense contractors.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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