Typhoon Sau-del, the 18th typhoon of the season, is rapidly intensifying as it moves through warm tropical waters.
According to major meteorological agencies, including the Korea Meteorological Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Typhoon Sau-del is currently moving northwest at about 20 km/h southeast of Guam. Although it is currently classified as a small typhoon with wind speeds of 20 m/s, it is expected to develop into a powerful typhoon with a central pressure of 935 hPa and maximum wind speeds of 49 m/s (176 km/h) as it passes through waters with temperatures above 29 degrees Celsius.
Forecast models from meteorological agencies in Korea, Japan, and China show significant differences regarding the typhoon's future path.
The Korea Meteorological Administration is closely monitoring the situation and has set its official forecast path to extend until the typhoon reaches the waters southeast of Okinawa early next week. The agency has stated that due to the high variability in the typhoon's intensity and movement speed, it is too early to determine whether it will directly impact the Korean Peninsula. However, the edge of the North Pacific High Pressure system, which previously helped block the typhoon, is showing signs of weakening and shifting, raising the possibility that a path for the typhoon could open toward the southern or western waters of the Korean Peninsula.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has heightened its alert, predicting a high likelihood of direct impact on Okinawa and the Sakishima Islands. Based on analyses from the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) and other numerical models, they are considering scenarios where the typhoon could change direction northeast after passing Okinawa, potentially striking the Japanese mainland near Hamamatsu or crossing the western waters of Japan. In such cases, the eastern and southern coasts of the Korean Peninsula could also experience indirect effects, including strong winds and high waves.
Conversely, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models suggest that the typhoon may shift slightly westward during its northward movement, potentially making landfall along the coast near Shanghai or Ningbo. Even if the typhoon weakens to a tropical depression upon reaching the Chinese coast, a significant influx of tropical moisture could lead to heavy rainfall across the Korean Peninsula, particularly in the western and central regions.
Regardless of its path, Typhoon Sau-del is expected to significantly influence the weather patterns over the Korean Peninsula in the coming days.
The most notable impact will likely be the continuation of extreme heat, persisting even after the solar term known as 'Chuseok.' The combination of hot, humid air from the typhoon's front and southern winds from the North Pacific High Pressure system is expected to raise daytime temperatures to around 33 degrees Celsius across most regions, with tropical nights continuing.
Additionally, preparations for localized heavy rain are urgent. The strong moisture being pushed up by the typhoon is expected to collide with cooler air over the Korean Peninsula, leading to extreme atmospheric instability. As a result, there is a high likelihood of sudden downpours accompanied by gusty winds and thunderstorms, with rainfall rates exceeding 30-50 mm per hour in various inland areas. Coastal areas may also experience sporadic waves and swells that could breach breakwaters and coastal roads, necessitating heightened safety measures for vacationers and facility management.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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