The Danish intelligence agency has warned that Russia may conduct limited attacks against NATO member countries or expand its hybrid warfare tactics within the next few months.
According to reports from Reuters and The Guardian on September 24, the Danish intelligence agency stated in a risk analysis report that Russia could carry out long-range attacks targeting NATO infrastructure supporting Ukraine or engage in limited military actions against neighboring NATO countries. While the agency assessed that the likelihood of such Russian attacks on NATO remains low, it noted a "growing risk."
Additionally, the Danish intelligence agency projected that Russia might intensify its hybrid warfare against European nations in the coming months. Hybrid warfare combines traditional military means with psychological and non-military tactics, such as cyberattacks and the spread of misinformation.
This assessment comes as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to drag on, with speculation that Russia aims to disrupt European support for Ukraine. A Russian official stated, "The top command of the Russian military is convinced that some NATO countries are directly involved in Ukraine's war against Russia," adding that they view the provision of weapons and intelligence, including guided missiles and drones, as participation in the conflict.
On the same day, a fire broke out at a Starlink satellite communication facility in Bolakrobovska, Mazowieckie, Poland, which the Polish government suspects may have been an act of sabotage. This facility is used to provide satellite communication services to the Ukrainian military.
The Guardian also reported that Russia might test NATO's Article 5 through provocations against certain NATO countries. Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all, prompting a collective defense response.
Currently, in the United States, President Donald Trump, who has close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, is in office, and in Europe, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico has expressed skepticism about NATO's collective defense, suggesting that now may be an opportune time for Russia to test NATO.
Warnings about potential Russian provocations against NATO have been increasing in recent months. The Guardian reported on September 20 that three European intelligence chiefs indicated Russia could engage in provocations to test NATO's resolve within months. Additionally, a U.S. intelligence report last month suggested that Russia might undertake various provocations against NATO within the next few years.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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