As demand for artificial intelligence (AI) servers surges, a shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to continue into next year. With suppliers gaining more negotiating power and the proportion of expensive HBM4 increasing, the average selling price of HBM is projected to more than double by 2027 compared to this year.
Market research firm TrendForce reported on September 29 that the average selling price (ASP) of mixed HBM is expected to rise by 121% next year compared to this year, revising its previous forecast upward.
This price increase does not simply mean that the price of the same product will double. The overall supply of HBM is limited, and the increasing sales share of the relatively high-priced HBM4, along with the gradual ramp-up of HBM4E production starting in the second half of next year, is expected to drive up the average price across all products.
The shortage is attributed to competition between HBM and standard DRAM production capacities. While demand for HBM for AI servers is rising, the production capabilities for advanced DRAM processes and wafer production are limited. TrendForce noted that it will take time to improve yields and stabilize production for next-generation products, leading to tight supply conditions expected to persist until 2027.
TrendForce previously estimated that even if HBM bit shipments increase by 50-60% in 2027 compared to the previous year, they will not keep pace with rising demand. NVIDIA is also considering various configurations for its next-generation 'Rubin Ultra,' including not only 12-Hi HBM4E but also 8-Hi HBM4 and HBM4E.
The HBM shortage is influencing the design direction of AI semiconductors. Graphics processing unit (GPU) and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) manufacturers are exploring ways to reduce the amount of HBM used per product. This is not due to weakened end demand, but rather a strategy to produce more AI chips with the limited HBM supply.
In particular, 8-Hi HBM, which stacks fewer DRAM chips than 12-Hi, is emerging as an alternative. The 8-Hi products can reduce the amount of DRAM used per stack and lower costs, allowing more GPUs to be supplied with memory from the same HBM production volume. TrendForce anticipates that next year, GPU and ASIC companies will prioritize 8-Hi products while considering performance, supply, and cost.
However, the price per capacity for 8-Hi products is expected to be higher. HBM requires one base die per stack regardless of the number of DRAM layers, meaning that the 8-Hi products, which have less DRAM capacity to share the base die cost, are projected to be about 10-20% more expensive per gigabit (Gb) than 12-Hi products.
Ultimately, adjusting the amount of HBM used may lower the overall cost burden for a single GPU, but it is unlikely to reverse the upward trend in HBM prices. TrendForce predicts that the combination of supply shortages and the transition to next-generation products will continue to give memory manufacturers strong negotiating power through 2027.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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