China's commercial aircraft fleet is projected to more than double over the next 20 years, positioning the country as the world's largest aviation market.
According to a report by the South China Morning Post on November 4, Boeing's Vice President of Commercial Marketing, Darren Hulst, stated at a press conference in Beijing that China's commercial aviation market is expected to grow rapidly over the next two decades. Boeing's '2026 China Commercial Market Outlook' indicates that China's current fleet of approximately 4,500 aircraft ranks second globally, behind the United States. By 2045, this number is expected to exceed 9,800. Analysts predict that China's aviation market, which has experienced rapid growth over the past 25 years, will continue to expand, solidifying its role as a key market alongside the U.S.
Boeing forecasts that Chinese airlines will take delivery of a total of 9,240 new aircraft over the next 20 years, with 42% of this demand driven by the need to replace aging aircraft. The combination of fleet expansion and replacement demand is expected to significantly boost the new aircraft market.
European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has also expressed optimism about the growth potential of the Chinese market. In September, Airbus projected that China would require 8,830 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, which exceeds 20% of the global forecast of 42,060 new passenger aircraft during the same period.
Factors contributing to the growth of China's aviation market include the expansion of the middle class, increased demand for international travel, and the enhancement of aviation infrastructure. Boeing anticipates that passenger demand in China will grow at an average annual rate of 5%. As the number of visa-free travel destinations increases and domestic and international flight routes expand, more Chinese travelers are expected to take to the skies.
Notably, by 2045, Boeing predicts that China's domestic passenger market will become the largest in the world. Chinese airlines are expected to introduce over 7,200 single-aisle aircraft over the next 20 years to operate domestic and Asia-Pacific routes, accounting for approximately 78% of the total new aircraft deliveries in China.
Long-haul international routes and the air cargo market are also expected to grow. With increasing passenger demand on routes connecting China to Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and the Middle East, more than 1,400 wide-body aircraft will be needed. Additionally, driven by growth in manufacturing, high-tech industries, and e-commerce, there will be demand for 560 new freighters and conversions of passenger aircraft into cargo planes by 2045, according to Boeing.
Hulst emphasized, "China is the largest market for the future of the aviation industry," adding that Boeing will continue to expand its investments and partnerships to meet Chinese demand.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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