U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to hold their first trilateral summit on November 19 in Shenzhen, China. Key topics for discussion include the Iran war and nuclear disarmament. However, differing interests among the three nations may hinder the possibility of concrete agreements.
On November 14, the Kremlin confirmed that the trilateral meeting would take place during the APEC summit, following an announcement from the White House. China has yet to officially confirm Xi's participation, although the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated on November 13 that it is maintaining communication with the involved countries.
According to reports from Reuters and other outlets, Trump views this summit as an opportunity to achieve diplomatic success following the Republican Party's disappointing performance in the recent midterm elections.
The U.S. is expected to prioritize discussions on nuclear disarmament and the Iran war during the meeting, particularly aiming to involve China in nuclear arms reduction negotiations. However, given China's historically passive stance on disarmament talks, reaching a specific agreement may prove challenging.
China has opposed U.S. calls for its participation in nuclear disarmament negotiations, citing its significantly smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the U.S. and Russia each possess over 5,000 nuclear warheads, while China's stockpile is estimated at around 500.
Reuters has assessed that the Ukraine war is unlikely to be a major agenda item at the summit, as China has not participated in discussions between the U.S. and Russia regarding the conflict. Nevertheless, analysts suggest that Putin may view this summit as an opportunity to negotiate favorable terms for ending the war in Ukraine.
For Putin, who has faced Western sanctions and diplomatic pressure over the Ukraine war, appearing alongside the U.S. and Chinese leaders on the international stage could serve as a platform to assert Russia's presence.
Conversely, experts believe that this summit may pose significant diplomatic challenges for China. Concerns have been raised that the meeting could evoke comparisons to the Yalta Conference of February 1945, where the leaders of the U.S., U.K., and Soviet Union discussed post-war international order.
China, which has advocated against great power hegemony and promoted multilateralism, may be wary of appearing to participate in a reconfiguration of international order alongside the U.S. and Russia. This apprehension may explain China's reluctance to include the Ukraine war in the summit agenda.
Wang Wen, director of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, told Hong Kong's Ming Pao that limited outcomes, such as establishing communication hotlines for crisis situations or cooperation on counter-terrorism and climate change, are likely to emerge from the summit. He also noted that China will likely emphasize its commitment to sovereignty and multilateralism while seeking to alleviate international concerns about a 'Yalta 2.0' scenario.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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