Leaders of major powers that shape the global order are set to convene in Xi'an, China, for the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit on November 18-19. U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and a trilateral meeting involving Russian President Vladimir Putin is also in the works. Given the intertwined international dynamics of the Ukraine war, military tensions in the Middle East, and the U.S.-China power struggle, this summit transcends mere economic cooperation and serves as a diplomatic stage to gauge the future of global order.
A key focus will be the meeting of the U.S., China, and Russia leaders. If the three presidents convene, discussions may cover nuclear disarmament, the Iran issue, and the Ukraine conflict. However, due to sharply diverging national interests, significant agreements are unlikely. President Trump is expected to showcase diplomatic achievements while managing trade and technology conflicts with China, while President Xi aims to stabilize relations with the U.S. and enhance China's international standing. President Putin is likely to seek ways to escape Western isolation. It is crucial to be wary that the strategic interests of these major powers may overshadow the concerns of middle powers.
Another critical agenda item is the competition for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy. Recently, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, resigned amid allegations of ties to Chinese intelligence and personal scandals, reigniting fierce debates over U.S. controls on AI technology exports to China. Voices in the U.S. Congress are increasingly calling for stricter export regulations. China has responded by claiming these actions are attempts at technological blockade.
This incident highlights the essence of the U.S.-China AI rivalry. The U.S. aims to leverage Nvidia's advanced chips and software ecosystem to curb China's AI ambitions, while China is accelerating its development of domestic chips and AI models to reduce reliance on foreign semiconductors. Increased uncertainty surrounding Nvidia's management and business in China could have ripple effects on global AI investments and semiconductor supply chains. South Korea may be affected not only by the memory competitiveness of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix but also by developments in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging, and AI data center ecosystems. It is essential to establish a supply chain and export strategy that can respond to the volatility of the Chinese market while preparing for U.S. regulatory tightening.
The situation in the Middle East cannot be overlooked. Military tensions surrounding Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact South Korea's economy, which heavily relies on imports of crude oil and natural gas. Rising energy prices would increase inflation and logistics costs, exacerbating the burden on manufacturing. South Korea must enhance its energy import diversification, bolster its reserves, and expand a balanced approach to nuclear and renewable energy to build resilience against external shocks.
President Lee Jae-myung faces a clear diplomatic challenge. A pragmatic approach to balanced diplomacy is needed, maintaining the U.S.-South Korea alliance as the security cornerstone while managing economic cooperation with China. A passive stance that leans toward one side or tries to appease both will not protect national interests. In the semiconductor, battery, and critical mineral supply chains, cooperation with allies such as the U.S., Japan, and Europe should be strengthened, while realistically managing connections with the Chinese market. The North Korean nuclear issue also requires enhancing deterrence based on South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation while persuading China and Russia to restrain North Korea's provocations.
At this APEC summit, South Korea must demonstrate proactive diplomacy that maximizes national interests while adhering to principles, rather than merely balancing between powers. It should not rely solely on the outcomes of leader meetings but strive for tangible results in economic security, supply chains, and energy cooperation. As the international order becomes increasingly unstable, the standards of diplomacy must become clearer.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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