U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Iran currently possesses up to 2,500 missiles, according to reports. This assessment contradicts President Donald Trump's claim that Iran's military capabilities have been effectively decimated.
On November 14, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's missile stockpile between 1,500 and 2,500. This indicates that Iran still retains military capabilities to strike U.S. and allied forces in the Middle East should a full-scale conflict resume. The Israeli military also assesses Iran's missile inventory to be over 1,500.
Earlier this year, following the outbreak of hostilities in February, the U.S. and Israel destroyed a significant number of Iran's missile production facilities through airstrikes. However, U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran is gradually replenishing its arsenal, albeit at a slower pace than before the conflict, by utilizing previously stockpiled components.
Simon Liddin, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the Trump administration, noted that even the lower estimate of 1,500 missiles indicates that Iran has regained more than half of its pre-war stockpile.
However, experts caution that accurately assessing Iran's missile inventory is challenging. Jim Ransom, a visiting researcher at King's College London and a former CIA officer, highlighted the difficulties in making precise estimates due to Iran's lack of transparency regarding its stockpiles and its reliance on multiple manufacturers. The uncertainty surrounding how much more can be produced from underground stockpiles further complicates the situation.
Iran is also believed to be enhancing its attack efficiency. Analysts suggest that with support from allies like Russia, Iran has improved its targeting capabilities and developed tactics that combine missile and drone strikes. In fact, Iran resumed attacks on U.S. facilities in Gulf countries after a two-month hiatus since early September. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for an attack on U.S. air defense radar systems at the Bahrain Al Udeid helicopter base using six drones from its aerospace division.
This assessment from U.S. intelligence contrasts with the narrative presented by U.S. leadership, which has emphasized the weakening of Iran's military power. On November 11, President Trump stated during a Veterans Day event that "we won" in the context of the conflict with Iran, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also downplayed Iran's rearmament capabilities on November 10, citing the weakening of its defense industry.
Trump has indicated a focus on maritime blockades and economic sanctions rather than large-scale airstrikes for the time being. He has reportedly instructed Vice President JD Vance, who had been in contact with Iran for peace negotiations, to cease communications and concentrate on domestic issues.
Meanwhile, the positions of key countries in the Middle East are divided. U.S. allies in the Gulf region have expressed opposition to the resumption of airstrikes due to concerns over potential Iranian missile and drone retaliation, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to pressure the U.S. administration for a renewed military operation against Iran.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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