Trump Arrives in Beijing for U.S.-China Summit Amid Tensions

On the night of May 13, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump’s plane landed at Beijing’s Capital International Airport. The airport’s VIP lounge displayed both the American flag and the Chinese five-star red flag, symbolizing the complex tensions and calculations in U.S.-China relations since the Cold War. While the visit appeared to be a state visit on the surface, it was actually a stage for a massive negotiation surrounding AI semiconductors, supply chains, the Taiwan Strait, Middle Eastern conflicts, dollar dominance, and the overall structure of 21st-century global hegemony.

Interestingly, on the same day, China and Taiwan exhibited starkly contrasting sentiments. The Shanghai Stock Exchange reached an 11-year high, while Taiwan conducted live-fire training with U.S.-made Javelin missiles just a few kilometers from the Chinese mainland on Kinmen Island. One side spoke the language of money, while the other spoke the language of gunpowder—one reflected market optimism, and the other the grim reality of potential conflict.

On May 13, China celebrated as the Shanghai Composite Index hit its highest level since 2015, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s ChiNext Index reached an all-time high. Notably, stocks related to AI and semiconductors surged. The news of Jensen Huang’s visit to China carried significant symbolism, indicating a potential new compromise between American technological capital and Chinese manufacturing capabilities. The Chinese market began to bet on the possibility of easing U.S.-China tensions.

In contrast, Taiwan sent a different message. The Taiwanese military conducted landing defense exercises on Kinmen Island, close to the Chinese coast, and for the first time, fired U.S.-made Javelin missiles. By showcasing its military cooperation with the U.S., Taiwan aimed to convey to both China and the U.S. that it is not merely a bargaining chip on the negotiation table.

Kinmen Island is not just any island; it was the frontline during the Cold War when China and Taiwan exchanged artillery fire. The lights of Xiamen, China, are visible just a few kilometers away. The sight of American weapons firing from there is symbolically powerful, illustrating how, while China draws the U.S. in economically, Taiwan holds onto the U.S. through security.

This scene ultimately reflects the essence of the upcoming summit. The U.S. and China are in a relationship where they must both clash and cooperate. They must fight without collapsing and compete without severing ties, as the global economy in the AI era is intricately intertwined, making complete separation of American technology and Chinese production systems impossible.

The key agenda items for the summit are fivefold:

1. AI and Semiconductor Issues: The U.S. is working to curb China’s rise in advanced semiconductors, particularly by controlling exports of high-performance GPUs and advanced equipment to slow China’s military applications of AI. However, American companies like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Apple find it difficult to completely abandon the Chinese market. While China is pushing for self-sufficiency in advanced chips, it still relies heavily on American technology and equipment. Therefore, discussions may focus on limited technology easing and supply chain stabilization.
2. Trade and Currency Issues: The U.S. is pressuring China over its overproduction and low-cost exports. Conversely, China views the U.S. high-interest policies and dollar dominance as destabilizing the global economy. The recent surge in the Chinese stock market suggests that the market is beginning to anticipate a “managed trade truce.” Both countries face increasing economic slowdown pressures, making some level of compromise inevitable.
3. The Taiwan Issue: This is the most dangerous agenda item for the summit. China insists it cannot compromise on the “One China” principle, while the U.S. maintains strategic ambiguity while strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities. The concern is President Trump’s transactional diplomatic style, which tends to bundle security and economic issues together. Some fear that the Taiwan issue could become a bargaining chip linked to trade, tariffs, and technology negotiations.
4. The Middle East Issue: Currently, the biggest variable in the world is arguably the Middle East, particularly the risks of war with Iran, which directly affect global oil prices and supply chains. China is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, and the U.S. urgently needs stable oil prices to curb inflation. Thus, while competing, both nations have a vested interest in stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz.
5. The Ukraine and Russia Issue: China maintains a strategic partnership with Russia while also bearing the burdens of Western sanctions. The U.S. is wary of China’s support for Russia. However, in the long term, the U.S. does not want to see a complete alignment between Russia and China. Therefore, there may be some level of undisclosed strategic communication during the summit.

Following the summit, three scenarios could unfold in Northeast Asia:

1. Optimistic Scenario: If both countries agree to extend the trade war truce and pursue limited technological cooperation, Chinese stocks could rise further, and the semiconductor industries in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan could stabilize. International oil prices may also stabilize, allowing global financial markets to recover their risk appetite.
2. Intermediate Scenario: If there are smiles on the surface but limited substantive agreements, both countries may avoid conflict while continuing their core hegemonic competition. Currently, this scenario seems most likely, with ongoing competition in AI, semiconductors, batteries, and rare earths, and structural tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
3. Pessimistic Scenario: If the summit fails or if there is a clash over Taiwan, China may escalate military training, and the U.S. could increase military support for Taiwan. Global financial markets could be immediately shaken, particularly increasing volatility in the semiconductor, shipping, and energy markets.

From South Korea’s perspective, this summit should not be viewed merely as news about U.S.-China tensions. The South Korean economy is deeply intertwined with both the U.S. security system and the Chinese market. Industries such as semiconductors, batteries, automobiles, shipbuilding, AI, and data centers are all influenced by U.S.-China relations.

Moreover, the Middle Eastern risks are compounding the situation. If the conflict in Iran drags on and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the global economy could face a double shock if U.S.-China relations do not stabilize to some extent. Ultimately, both the U.S. and China are living in an era where they cannot completely undermine each other.

As the ancient Chinese text, "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu states, "The best victory is the one that is achieved without fighting." The U.S. and China are entering that stage now, engaging in a war without firing a shot, smiling while calculating each other's vulnerabilities.

Behind President Trump’s expression as he arrived at Beijing Airport on the night of May 13 lies a heavy shadow of an era that transcends mere diplomatic visits.

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