This winter is expected to be particularly harsh for Ukraine. A document has emerged revealing Russia's plan to cut electricity, heating, and water supplies in major Ukrainian cities, aiming to freeze the country and hinder its war efforts. The New York Times reported on October 2 that Ukraine has obtained this Russian attack plan and shared it with European partner nations.
According to the NYT, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal presented the document to European partners in Paris two weeks ago. Two anonymous sources familiar with the announcement described it as a Russian war plan obtained by Shmyhal. The document outlines operations to target substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants, and boiler facilities using missiles, drones, and bombs.
Of particular concern is the plan to strike three operational nuclear power plants in Ukraine and the substations connected to the power grid, with the intention of forcing the reactors to shut down. The issue is that these substations are located less than a kilometer from the reactors. The plan also includes targeting water supply systems, such as pumping stations and sewage treatment facilities, with dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs.
The document indicates that the primary targets are major cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa, with a goal of cutting power and heating supplies by up to 90%. Ukrainian authorities believe that attacks have already begun. While it remains uncertain whether Russia will execute the plan as outlined or if it will be successful, Ukraine is preparing as best as it can. They are constructing protective structures over key substations and have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in repairing power plants and substations.
Olena Pavlenko, head of the energy think tank Dixi Group, expressed concern to the NYT, stating, "After four winters of war, the power grid has become so weakened that enduring another winter is like running a marathon with one lung."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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