AJU PRESS ASIA FIRST NEWS AGENCY

Journalist

Kim Hee-su
Kim Hee-su김희수
ReporterMinistry of Foreign Affairs, Seoul City Hall & Defense, Foreign Affairs
Kim Hee-su is a bilingual reporter at AJU Press, covering defense and foreign affairs. Before joining AJP in 2025, she worked at The Korea Times, where she wrote interview stories, including a profile of North Korean defector Kim Gum-hyok, and produced digital content. She also previously worked as a researcher for KBS News 9’s International News Department, supporting correspondents in 10 countries around the world. She graduated from the University of Toronto in Canada with a double major in Book and Media Studies and East Asian Studies. "I'm driven by storytelling."
Latest by Kim Hee-su
  • Seouls Hormuz dilemma puts Tokyo on notice
    Seoul's Hormuz dilemma puts Tokyo on notice SEOUL, September 07 (AJP) - The heat from Washington is rising on Seoul to contribute to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Tokyo is increasingly feeling it too as Japan braces for the possibility that it could be next in line for a U.S. call to act. South Korea has yet to decide whether to send military assets to the strategic waterway, but the Trump administration has become increasingly explicit in demanding support from an ally heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy. The dilemma is being watched closely in Japan, which faces an even greater exposure to Hormuz and many of the same questions over how far a U.S. ally should go in sharing the burden of keeping vital sea lanes open. The South Korean Ministry of National Defense said Monday that no specific form of military contribution has been decided, stressing that discussions remain under way with the United States and other partners. “The government is closely consulting with the international community, including the United States, on practical ways to contribute to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the swift restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East,” a Defense Ministry official said. “No specific measures have been decided at this point.” “The review has likely already been completed, and South Korea is expected to provide some form of support. The government appears to be gauging reactions before making a move,” a source familiar with the discussions said on condition of anonymity. The ministry said Seoul has also been holding consultations with Britain and France without disclosing details. The comments came as Washington sharpened its public pressure. A White House official said Sunday that the United States was “still waiting” for South Korea to deploy resources to the region, pointing directly to the country's reliance on Middle Eastern oil. The Pentagon separately reiterated President Donald Trump's expectation that allies help defend freedom of navigation through Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly singled out South Korea since the war with Iran began on Feb. 28. He said in March that South Korea, Japan, China and other countries dependent on the strait would “have to get involved a little bit,” while emphasizing that Washington had long helped defend South Korea. The rhetoric has become more pointed. Trump said late last month that he would “remember” what he described as South Korea's reluctance to assist the United States over Iran. He also recently shared a Washington Post opinion column urging him to pressure Seoul to sell its Cheongung-II, or M-SAM II, air defense system to Ukraine, adding to perceptions that Washington expects a broader security contribution from its ally. The implication has not been lost on Tokyo. Japan and South Korea sit in remarkably similar positions as two of Washington's closest Asian allies and major importers of Middle Eastern energy. Japan's dependence is even greater. Around 93 percent of Japan's crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with roughly 61 percent for South Korea. The disparity leaves Tokyo vulnerable to the same argument Washington is already making to Seoul: countries whose economies depend on the waterway should contribute more directly to keeping it open. Japanese media have increasingly framed South Korea's deliberations as a possible precedent. A Korean deployment, even one limited to surveillance, logistics or mine-clearing support, could make it harder for Tokyo to resist similar pressure from Washington. Japan has so far avoided committing Self-Defense Force assets to an active operation. Its government has instead emphasized diplomacy, safe navigation and close coordination with international partners while insisting that no deployment decision has been made. Tokyo, however, has not remained outside discussions. Japan has taken part in consultations over a possible multinational mission led by Britain and France, reflecting concerns that prolonged disruption to Hormuz would pose an immediate threat to the country's energy security. The legal and political hurdles are higher for Japan. Its postwar constitutional framework and security legislation impose tighter restrictions on Self-Defense Force operations in active conflict zones, particularly where a mission could amount to the use of force. Mine-clearing after hostilities subside would be one of the more legally feasible options, while operating amid active combat would be far more complicated. South Korea faces fewer constitutional constraints but carries its own political risks. Iran has warned that any South Korean military action directed against it would be considered participation in the war. Seoul therefore has strong incentives to draw a clear distinction between protecting commercial shipping and taking part in combat operations. Defense experts said a narrowly defined deployment could offer a middle course. “We have reached a point where it is time to consider a deployment,” Choi Ki-il, a professor of military studies at Sangji University and head of the Korea Defense Industry Research Institute, told AJP. Choi said any mission should focus on protecting South Korean vessels and crews and supporting freedom of navigation rather than taking part in direct combat against Iran. “Even if we deploy, our role should be limited to protecting our own ships,” Choi said. He said maritime patrol aircraft, warships or logistics support assets could be considered depending on what the government determines is necessary. Among the assets reportedly under consideration are the Navy's P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and the 11,000-ton ROKS Soyang fast combat support ship. The P-8A can conduct wide-area maritime surveillance, while the Soyang can provide fuel, ammunition and other supplies to naval forces at sea. The Defense Ministry stressed Monday that no specific assets, timing or scale have been decided. A multinational framework could give Seoul greater political room. Britain and France have been leading discussions over a defensive force aimed at protecting civilian shipping and supporting mine-clearing operations in and around the strait. “If South Korea participates, it should not do so independently, but as part of a coalition force,” Kim Hong-yoo, a professor at Kyung Hee University and a policy committee member of the Korea Defense Industry Association, told AJP. Kim said a coalition format could allow South Korea to take on support functions without leading a separate Korean operation. Coalition fleets can include not only combat vessels but logistics and other support ships, he said. The National Security Council would likely become involved once a deployment decision is made because the government would then have to determine which forces could be spared without undermining South Korea's own defense posture, Kim said. President Lee Jae Myung's state visit to France adds another layer to the deliberations. Lee is scheduled to hold summit talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday. France, together with Britain, has played a leading role in discussions over a multinational Hormuz mission, making the issue a possible subject for discussion even though neither government has confirmed it will be on the summit agenda. A coalition-based contribution could give Seoul a way to respond to Washington without appearing to join a unilateral U.S.-led military campaign against Iran. The same formula could eventually become relevant to Japan. Tokyo's domestic debate already reflects competing instincts. Conservative voices have argued that Japan cannot indefinitely rely on other countries to protect a waterway indispensable to its economy and have called for a Maritime Self-Defense Force contribution. Others argue that Japan should avoid being pulled into a widening war and instead use its long-standing diplomatic channels with both Washington and Tehran. The debate ultimately goes beyond Hormuz. Washington's pressure on Seoul is becoming a broader test of how the United States expects its Asian allies to share security responsibilities outside Northeast Asia. South Korea and Japan have long relied on the U.S. military to deter threats closer to home. The Trump administration is increasingly asking what they are prepared to do in return when American strategic interests and global trade routes are at risk elsewhere. A South Korean decision to send even limited assets could therefore change more than Seoul's relationship with Washington. It could establish a new benchmark for Asian allied burden-sharing. Tokyo would then have to explain why Japan, whose economy depends even more heavily on Hormuz, should remain on the sidelines. For Seoul, the immediate challenge is finding a contribution substantial enough to satisfy Washington without crossing the line into direct participation in the Iran war. For Tokyo, the harder question may be what happens if South Korea moves first. AJP Takeaways - Washington is intensifying pressure on South Korea to contribute to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. - Tokyo is watching Seoul closely as Japan could face the same U.S. demand given its even heavier dependence on Middle Eastern oil. - South Korea is weighing limited roles such as maritime surveillance, logistics and coalition support rather than direct combat. - A Korean deployment could set a precedent for how Washington expects its Asian allies to share security burdens beyond their home region. 2026-09-07 17:52:06
  • S. Korea, US, Japan launch Freedom Edge without US carrier
    S. Korea, US, Japan launch Freedom Edge without US carrier SEOUL, September 07 (AJP) - South Korea, the United States and Japan began their annual Freedom Edge exercise Monday near Jeju Island, with the five-day multidomain drill set to run without a U.S. aircraft carrier for a second straight year. The five-day exercise, which runs through Sept. 11, involves major naval and air assets from the three countries, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said. Six warships, including Aegis destroyers, as well as maritime patrol aircraft, fighter jets and aerial refueling aircraft are expected to take part. South Korea is participating with two 7,600-ton Aegis destroyers, the ROKS Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong and ROKS Yulgok Yi I. Japan has deployed the 7,700-ton Aegis destroyer JS Atago, the 5,100-ton destroyer JS Asahi, a P-1 maritime patrol aircraft, an SH-60K helicopter and F-15 fighter jets, according to Japan's Joint Staff. The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said Sept. 3 that the Aegis destroyer USS Benfold had arrived in Busan, raising expectations that the 6,900-ton warship could also participate in the exercise. Maritime missile defense involving Aegis-equipped warships from all three countries has traditionally been a central component of Freedom Edge. A U.S. aircraft carrier, however, is unlikely to participate for a second consecutive year. U.S. carriers joined the first two Freedom Edge exercises in June and November 2024, but Washington's carrier deployments in the region have been constrained as the prolonged war with Iran draws more U.S. military assets toward the Middle East. The nuclear-powered USS George Washington, previously based in Japan, has been sent to the Middle East under the Trump administration. The USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been operating in the region for an extended period, is returning to its home port in San Diego after being relieved by the George Washington. "The three countries will strengthen their operational capabilities and joint response capabilities across various domains, including maritime, air and cyber, and maintain a robust and stable cooperative relationship through the exercise," South Korea's JCS said. Freedom Edge was launched after the leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan agreed at their 2023 Camp David summit to conduct regular multidomain exercises. This week's exercise marks the fourth iteration and is aimed at improving interoperability among the three militaries across multiple domains. "This exercise is an annual defensive exercise conducted in accordance with international law and norms to enhance deterrence and response capabilities against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and to safeguard regional peace and stability," the JCS said. Japan and the United States, however, have framed the exercise in broader regional terms, including security challenges across the Indo-Pacific. Japan's Joint Staff said last month that the exercise is intended to demonstrate the three countries' "unwavering commitment to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region," while the United States has similarly said Freedom Edge and continued trilateral cooperation underscore their commitment to safeguarding a free and open Indo-Pacific. AJP Takeaways - South Korea, the U.S. and Japan launched their annual Freedom Edge multidomain exercise near Jeju Island. - The drill includes Aegis destroyers, aircraft and missile-defense training, but no U.S. aircraft carrier for a second straight year. - Seoul emphasizes North Korean threats, while Washington and Tokyo frame the exercise around broader Indo-Pacific security. 2026-09-07 13:55:08
  • Russia ships Vostok oil as South Korea tests Arctic route
    Russia ships Vostok oil as South Korea tests Arctic route SEOUL, September 07 (AJP) - Russia has shipped the first crude oil from its Vostok Oil project through the Arctic, highlighting Moscow's push to expand the Northern Sea Route just as South Korea conducts its first trial voyage by a container ship along the same corridor. The first batch of crude from Vostok Oil, a major development project in Russia's Arctic Taimyr region, was loaded Friday at a newly built terminal in Sever Bay onto the ice-class tanker Valentin Pikul, according to Russian state oil company Rosneft. Another tanker, the Akademik Gubkin, was waiting nearby to dock at the terminal, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said during a ceremony broadcast on Russian state television and watched remotely by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The shipment marks the start of crude exports from one of Russia's most ambitious energy projects and could increase cargo volumes along the Northern Sea Route, the Arctic shipping corridor connecting Europe and Asia along Russia's northern coast. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said oil produced from the project would be delivered to buyers in the Asia-Pacific region and the West. Rosneft expects Vostok Oil to supply 30 million metric tons of crude to the global market in the second half of next year and increase annual shipments to 50 million tons by 2030, equivalent to about 1 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg estimates. Sechin said annual output could eventually reach 100 million tons if demand and economic conditions allow. The development comes as South Korea is testing the commercial potential of the same Arctic maritime corridor. The PanStar Acro, the first South Korean container ship to embark on a trial voyage through the Northern Sea Route, entered Arctic waters on Aug. 31 after departing Busan New Port on Aug. 22. The vessel is sailing westward along Russia's northern coast and is expected to pass through the Vilkitsky Strait around Sept. 10. The strait, located between Russia's Taimyr Peninsula and the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, is a key passage along the Northern Sea Route. The geographic overlap is notable as the Vostok Oil project is also based in the Taimyr region, placing Russia's emerging Arctic oil export infrastructure close to a key section of the route currently being tested by the South Korean vessel. The PanStar Acro is scheduled to arrive at the British port of Felixstowe around Sept. 14, although its timetable has already been delayed from an earlier Sept. 9 arrival as the ship reduces speed in response to weather and sea ice conditions. The Arctic section of the voyage stretches about 6,400 kilometers. The broader northeastern route from Busan to Rotterdam covers roughly 13,000 kilometers, about 7,000 kilometers shorter than the conventional route through the Suez Canal. But the voyage is also demonstrating the operational challenges that remain before Arctic shipping can become a reliable commercial alternative. South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and the ship operator have prepared special safety measures for the trial. After calling at Felixstowe and other European ports, the PanStar Acro is scheduled to return to Busan through the Arctic route. The South Korean government plans to analyze data from the round trip, including sailing distance, travel time, fuel consumption, operating costs and schedule reliability, to assess the safety and economic viability of the route. AJP Takeaways - Russia has begun Vostok Oil exports via the Northern Sea Route. - South Korea is testing the same Arctic route with the PanStar Acro. - Seoul will assess its safety, cost and commercial viability. 2026-09-07 10:56:17
  • Iran warns S. Korea against Hormuz deployment as U.S. pressure builds
    Iran warns S. Korea against Hormuz deployment as U.S. pressure builds SEOUL, September 06 (AJP) - Iran has warned that any South Korean military involvement in the Strait of Hormuz would be regarded as participation in the war, as Washington steps up pressure on Seoul to contribute. The unnamed official made the warning in an interview with Al Mayadeen, a Lebanon-based media outlet close to Hezbollah, according to a report Thursday. “If South Korea takes action against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, it will be considered direct military aggression and participation in the war,” the official said. The official also urged Seoul not to give in to U.S. pressure to cooperate with what Tehran described as Washington’s military operations, arguing that South Korea should not sacrifice its own interests and reputation for U.S. policy in the region. The warning comes as South Korea weighs possible military and nonmilitary contributions to securing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global energy supplies and particularly important to South Korea, which receives more than 60 percent of its crude oil imports through the route. Seoul says no final decision has been made. The presidential office said Thursday that South Korea could consider military options as long as they do not significantly undermine readiness on the Korean Peninsula. Possible options reportedly under consideration include deploying P-8A maritime patrol aircraft, a naval logistics support vessel or mine-clearing personnel. Any deployment involving South Korean troops would also have to take domestic legal and political considerations into account, including possible approval from the National Assembly. Pressure from Washington over Hormuz has persisted since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began on Feb. 28. Trump first called on countries heavily dependent on Gulf energy, including South Korea and Japan, to help secure the strait in March, arguing that those benefiting most from the shipping route should contribute to keeping it open. Washington and Seoul subsequently held discussions over a possible South Korean naval contribution. Trump renewed the criticism late last month, singling out South Korea while recounting what he described as Seoul’s reluctance to assist the United States over Iran. Trump said Aug. 30 that when he asked South Korea whether it could “help a little bit” with Iran, Seoul responded that it would prefer not to, adding that he would “remember” the response. The pressure appeared to broaden beyond the Middle East on Friday, when Trump shared a Washington Post opinion column on Truth Social calling for South Korea to sell its domestically developed Cheongung-II air defense missile system to Ukraine. The column by conservative commentator Marc Thiessen argued that Trump should pressure Seoul to provide the system, also known as the M-SAM II, as an interim solution to Ukraine’s shortage of air defense interceptors. Trump shared the column without adding his own comment. The move has drawn attention in Seoul because the Cheongung-II is a core element of South Korea’s own missile defense architecture, designed in part to counter North Korean ballistic missile threats. It also comes as Washington has increasingly linked allied support to a broader expectation that partners shoulder more of the security burden, whether in the Middle East or Ukraine. South Korean officials are now facing pressure to balance those alliance expectations with concerns over military readiness, domestic opposition and the risk of worsening relations with Tehran. Seoul, however, has sought to frame any possible role in Hormuz around protecting international shipping rather than joining combat operations against Iran. “The government is closely communicating with the international community, including relevant countries, for the swift restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East and the free passage of all vessels, including ours, through the Strait of Hormuz,” a Foreign Ministry official said. The issue could also surface during President Lee Jae Myung’s talks with French President Emmanuel Macron in France on Tuesday. France and Britain have been among the countries discussing a multinational mission to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, including possible mine-clearing operations, and Seoul has participated in consultations over the initiative. AJP Takeaways - Iran warned any South Korean military role in Hormuz could be treated as participation in the war. - Seoul is weighing military and nonmilitary options as Trump presses allies to help secure the strait. - U.S. pressure has widened, with Trump also amplifying calls for South Korea to sell Cheongung-II missiles to Ukraine. 2026-09-06 16:56:33
  • Busan sickness fuels Taiwan travel boom to Busan
    'Busan sickness' fuels Taiwan travel boom to Busan SEOUL, September 06 (AJP) - Flights between Busan and Taiwan have surged this year as a growing number of Taiwanese travelers visit South Korea’s southern port city, fueled by expanding direct routes and strong demand. A total of 6,609 flights operated between Busan and Taiwan through July, already matching the full-year total for 2024 and reaching 82.9 percent of the 7,976 flights recorded in all of 2025, according to aviation statistics from Korea Airports Corp. Passenger traffic has grown even faster. Some 1.14 million passengers traveled on Busan-Taiwan routes during the first seven months of this year, surpassing the 1.06 million recorded in all of 2024. The full-year figure for 2025 stood at 1.33 million. Airlines have responded by adding flights and launching new services. Taiwanese carriers including EVA Air and Starlux Airlines have expanded their presence, while South Korean carriers have also increased frequencies. Nine airlines currently operate between Busan and Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport near Taipei, while direct services also connect Busan with Kaohsiung and Taichung. Most flights between Busan and Taiwan are reported to have load factors of more than 80 percent. The popularity of Busan has even spawned a new expression on Taiwanese social media, “Busan sickness,” referring to travelers who miss the city after returning home and feel compelled to visit again. Taiwanese travelers were the largest group of foreign visitors to Busan this year. Of the 2.93 million foreign tourists who visited the city through July, about 605,000 were from Taiwan. Busan’s food, combination of mountains and sea, ease of travel and growing network of direct flights are among the factors credited with attracting Taiwanese visitors. Rising demand from Taiwanese travelers has led airlines to expand direct services, further boosting Busan's appeal as a destination. “With no restrictions on traffic rights, it is relatively easy for airlines to launch routes or add flights, and the greater choice of direct services appears to have attracted even more Taiwanese travelers,” an aviation industry official said. Tourism authorities are also stepping up promotions, with Busan targeting repeat Taiwanese visitors through its “Busan sickness” campaign and Taiwan holding a roadshow in Busan last month to attract more South Korean travelers. AJP Takeaways - Busan-Taiwan passenger traffic topped 1.14 million through July. - Airlines are adding direct flights as demand and load factors remain high. - “Busan sickness” reflects strong Taiwanese interest in revisiting Busan. 2026-09-06 15:02:44
  • Lee heads to France for state visit to deepen strategic cooperation
    Lee heads to France for state visit to deepen strategic cooperation SEOUL, September 06 (AJP) - President Lee Jae Myung left for France on Sunday for a state visit aimed at expanding cooperation in advanced industries and strengthening ties with Europe. The visit comes at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron, who asked Lee during his trip to South Korea in April to co-chair the Lumière Summit, an international film and audiovisual industry gathering in southern France. Lee is scheduled to attend the summit with Macron in Saint-Paul-de-Vence on Monday before traveling to Paris for a two-day state visit beginning Tuesday. Following an official welcoming ceremony, Lee will hold a one-on-one luncheon with Macron at the Élysée Palace, followed by an expanded summit involving delegations from both countries. The two leaders are expected to discuss ways to deepen cooperation in advanced technology sectors including artificial intelligence, space, nuclear energy and biotechnology. Seoul also hopes to expand exchanges involving young people and science and technology, while creating more opportunities for Korean cultural content in the European market. Lee will also attend a Korea-France business roundtable involving more than 20 companies from the two countries and a state dinner hosted by Macron and his wife. The trip comes as South Korea and France mark the 140th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year. His trip is also taking place as search efforts continue in Nepal for nine South Koreans who remain missing following severe flooding. “I will continue to receive updates while in France and make sure that all necessary measures are taken,” Lee said before his departure, adding that he would also carry out his diplomatic responsibilities “for the national interest and future generations.” On the final day of his visit Wednesday, Lee is scheduled to meet French National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet and OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. He is also expected to hold a luncheon with members of the Korean community in France. AJP Takeaways - Lee Jae Myung is visiting France to deepen South Korea-France strategic cooperation. - Talks will cover advanced industries, technology, business and cultural exchanges. - The trip marks 140 years of diplomatic ties between South Korea and France. 2026-09-06 14:34:16
  • Dementia to affect more than 1 in 10 elderly Koreans by 2040
    Dementia to affect more than 1 in 10 elderly Koreans by 2040 SEOUL, September 06 (AJP) - More than one in 10 South Koreans aged 65 or older are projected to have dementia by 2040 as the country’s population ages rapidly, government estimates showed Sunday. The dementia prevalence rate among people aged 65 and older is expected to reach 10.34 percent in 2040, according to projections by the Ministry of Health and Welfare based on national population forecasts and a nationwide epidemiological survey on dementia. The rate fell slightly from 9.17 percent in 2020 to 9.09 percent last year, but is expected to rise again over the coming years. By 2050, the prevalence rate is projected to climb to 11.81 percent, with about 2.23 million dementia patients among an elderly population of 18.91 million. Medical spending on dementia has also been rising. According to the Health Insurance Research Institute under the National Health Insurance Service, medical expenses for dementia patients aged 40 and older surpassed 1 trillion won ($741 million) for the first time in 2012 and rose above 2 trillion won in 2016 and 3 trillion won in 2020. The figure reached 3.34 trillion won in 2023, up 141.4 percent from a decade earlier. The increase was particularly pronounced among elderly women. In 2023, men aged 80 and older accounted for 52 percent of total dementia-related medical spending among male patients. For women, those aged 80 and older accounted for 82 percent of the total. Women in their 80s alone accounted for 1.3 trillion won in medical expenses, while those aged 90 and older accounted for 683.9 billion won. Dementia-related medical costs are expected to continue rising as South Korea’s population ages. Depending on the projection model, total medical expenses are forecast to reach between about 3.7 trillion won and 4.4 trillion won by 2030. “The number of people with dementia is expected to continue increasing and reach 1.3 to 1.5 times the 2023 level by 2030,” the researchers said. People aged 80 and older are expected to account for more than half of all dementia patients, while women are projected to make up about 65 percent of the total, they added. AJP Takeaways - More than 1 in 10 South Koreans aged 65 or older are projected to have dementia by 2040. - Dementia-related medical spending reached 3.34 trillion won in 2023, up 141.4 percent from a decade earlier. - People aged 80 and older and women are expected to account for most dementia cases as South Korea ages. 2026-09-06 11:25:11
  • High-priced Seoul apartments face broader property tax reach by 2030
    High-priced Seoul apartments face broader property tax reach by 2030 SEOUL, September 06 (AJP) - South Korea's comprehensive real estate holding tax could apply to high-priced apartments in nearly every Seoul district by 2030 if the recent pace of home price increases continues, according to a new simulation. The analysis, based on data from KB Kookmin Bank, examined 125 apartment complexes, selecting the five highest-priced complexes in each of Seoul's 25 districts. It was provided to Rep. Shin Dong-wook of the main opposition People Power Party. Under a scenario in which Seoul apartment prices continue rising by 11 percent a year, the same pace recorded between June 2025 and May 2026, apartments subject to the comprehensive real estate holding tax would be found in 22 of Seoul's 25 districts by 2030. Only Gangbuk, Geumcheon and Dobong districts would have none among the complexes examined. The number of taxable complexes in the sample would rise from 78 this year to 101 by 2030. The comprehensive real estate holding tax is imposed on owners of high-value real estate above a specified deduction threshold, in addition to the ordinary property tax charged by local governments. The simulation reflects the government's proposed tax changes from 2027, including a basic deduction of 1.4 billion won for owner-occupied homes and 1.2 billion won for properties where the owner does not live. The tax burden could also rise sharply if home prices maintain their current trajectory. For the 125 complexes studied, the combined tax burden for owners who do not live in their properties is estimated to increase from 58.9 billion won this year to 526.2 billion won in 2030, nearly nine times the current level. For owner-occupied homes, the figure is projected at 334.7 billion won. Even if annual home price growth slows to 5.5 percent, half the recent pace of 11 percent, the tax burden would still increase substantially. Under that scenario, 82 of the 125 complexes across 19 districts would be subject to the tax by 2030, while the combined tax bill for non-owner-occupied properties would reach 292.6 billion won, about five times this year's level. “If housing prices continue rising, the tax could increasingly affect ordinary homeowners across Seoul rather than only owners of the city's most expensive properties,” Shin said. AJP Takeaways - Seoul’s comprehensive real estate holding tax could reach 22 of 25 districts by 2030. - The number of taxable apartment complexes could rise from 78 this year to 101 by 2030. - Tax bills could climb sharply even if annual home price growth slows to 5.5 percent. 2026-09-06 10:28:35
  • Seoul faces rising debt burden despite improved debt ratio
    Seoul faces rising debt burden despite improved debt ratio SEOUL, September 06 (AJP) - South Korea's debt burden is set to grow through 2030, even as its national debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to improve. The country's national debt is forecast to reach 1,734.1 trillion won ($1.28 trillion) by 2030, up from 1,412.8 trillion won this year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Budget's 2026 to 2030 fiscal plan. Of that amount, 1,312.3 trillion won, or 75.7 percent, is expected to be classified as deficit-financing debt, up from 1,025.2 trillion won and 72.6 percent this year. Deficit-financing debt refers broadly to borrowing without corresponding financial assets that can be used for repayment. Unlike debt incurred to finance loans or other assets, it must ultimately be serviced largely through future government revenue, including taxes. That makes its continued increase particularly important for the government's long-term fiscal position. The rising debt stock is also pushing up the cost of servicing it. Annual interest payments on national debt are projected to climb from 36.5 trillion won this year to 53.3 trillion won in 2030, crossing the 50 trillion won mark for the first time. Interest costs as a share of gross domestic product are expected to rise from 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent over the same period. Yet the government's headline debt indicator is expected to improve. National debt as a share of GDP is projected to fall from 50.6 percent this year to 48.3 percent in 2027 before edging up to 49 percent in 2030. The government attributes the improvement largely to stronger nominal economic growth and increased revenue, including higher tax receipts associated with the semiconductor boom. The ratio, however, does not capture all of the potential fiscal risks facing the government. Government-guaranteed debt, which is not counted as direct national debt unless the government is required to repay it, is expected to rise from 27.7 trillion won this year to 157.3 trillion won in 2030. Its ratio to GDP would increase from 1 percent to 4.4 percent. Such guarantees become a government liability if the public institutions or funds that borrowed the money are unable to repay their obligations. Much of the expected increase comes from government-backed financing for strategic industries and investment programs. The guaranteed balance of bonds issued by the Advanced Strategic Industry Fund is projected to rise from 6.4 trillion won this year to 78.5 trillion won in 2030 as the government expands investment in areas including artificial intelligence and AI data centers. New Korea-US strategic investment bonds are also expected to contribute to the increase. Debt held by major public institutions is also expected to increase sharply. The combined liabilities of 37 major public institutions are projected to rise from 778.3 trillion won this year to 997.4 trillion won in 2030, an increase of 219.1 trillion won in four years. A major contributor is Korea Land and Housing Corp., or LH, as the state housing developer takes on a larger role in expanding housing supply. Its debt alone is projected to rise from 197.5 trillion won this year to 372.8 trillion won by 2030. The risk would become more pronounced if economic growth or tax revenue weakens, particularly if the semiconductor cycle cools or indebted public institutions face difficulty meeting their obligations. AJP Takeaways - South Korea’s national debt is projected to reach 1,734.1 trillion won by 2030. - Deficit-financing debt is expected to account for 75.7 percent of total national debt by 2030. - Government guarantees and public institution debt are also set to rise, increasing long-term fiscal risks. 2026-09-06 09:53:42
  • Seoul joins global arms race with record defense spending
    Seoul joins global arms race with record defense spending SEOUL, September 03 (AJP) - South Korea is joining a global rearmament push by packaging the largest military spending increase in nearly two decades against widening geopolitical conflict, changing warfare and U.S. pressure on allies to shoulder more of their own defense The government has proposed a record 73.28 trillion won ($54.0 billion) defense budget for 2027, up 8.2 percent from this year, with much of the additional money directed toward missile defense, drones, artificial intelligence and capabilities needed for greater military autonomy. The increase outpaces China's 7 percent rise in central government defense spending for 2026. Beijing allocated 1.91 trillion yuan this year and has yet to announce its 2027 budget. Japan, meanwhile, is seeking a record 8.9 trillion yen defense budget for fiscal 2027 as it continues a five-year military buildup centered increasingly on drones, missiles and other unmanned systems. South Korea's headline record comes with an accounting caveat. Starting in 2027, the government will include force operations, defense capability improvement and military manpower administration under a single defense-expenditure measure, making direct comparisons with previously reported totals less straightforward. The broader direction, however, is unmistakable. Global military expenditure rose 2.9 percent to $2.89 trillion in 2025, marking an 11th consecutive annual increase, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Spending in Europe alone jumped 14 percent as Russia's war in Ukraine continued to drive rearmament across the continent. Recent conflicts are also changing what militaries are spending their money on. During the war with Iran, U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress that the United States and its allies had intercepted more than 1,500 missiles and 6,000 drones, putting heavy pressure on stocks of costly air-defense interceptors. The Pentagon has since moved to expand production of key missile defenses including Patriot PAC-3 and THAAD interceptors. Ukraine has demonstrated the challenge on an even larger scale. Russia launched nearly 1,500 drones at Ukraine over just four days in late August, more than half of them jet-powered, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine itself is on track to produce between 6 million and 7 million small first-person-view attack drones this year, or roughly 500,000 a month. The scale of drone warfare has created a two-sided problem for militaries: they need large quantities of inexpensive unmanned systems for surveillance and attack while developing cheaper ways to stop enemy drones without exhausting far more expensive missile inventories. South Korea's 2027 spending plan is built increasingly around those pressures while addressing threats specific to the Korean Peninsula. Spending on force operations will rise 5.9 percent to 50.04 trillion won, while the defense capability improvement budget, used largely to acquire and develop weapons, will jump 13.8 percent to 22.71 trillion won. The latter will increase by about 2.8 trillion won, the largest annual gain on record. Particularly striking is the increase tied to South Korea's push for greater military autonomy and the transfer of wartime operational control, or OPCON, from the United States. Funding designated for OPCON transition and self-reliant defense will surge 34.9 percent from 9.02 trillion won this year to 12.17 trillion won in 2027. The government plans to accelerate deployment of medium-altitude reconnaissance drones and the L-SAM long-range missile defense system, expand production of the KF-21 fighter jet and begin work on a nuclear-powered submarine program. The budget also incorporates lessons from drone-heavy conflicts. Funding for artificial intelligence and manned-unmanned teaming systems will increase 55.5 percent, while spending on drone and counter-drone capabilities will rise 18.8 percent. The military plans to develop swarm and loitering attack drones while expanding laser-based and other counter-drone defenses, reflecting the growing need to counter large numbers of relatively inexpensive aerial threats without relying exclusively on costly interceptors. The buildup comes at an important moment for the future of the South Korea-U.S. alliance. President Lee Jae Myung recently nominated Kang Shin-chul, a former deputy commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, as defense minister. Kang said Thursday that Seoul should pursue OPCON transition in a way that strengthens the alliance. The allies are in the second stage of a three-stage conditions-based transition process, and Seoul aims to complete the full operational capability assessment this year. The Lee administration wants to regain wartime operational control before Lee's term ends in 2030 and is seeking to establish a target year during the allies' annual Security Consultative Meeting this fall. The accelerating military buildup is unfolding alongside Lee's push to ease tensions with North Korea. Lee said Wednesday that conditions should be created for renewed dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang and called for the Korean Peninsula's decades-old armistice system eventually to be replaced by a permanent peace framework based on cooperation and prosperity. South Korean intelligence authorities have also detected signs that both North Korea and the United States may be interested in returning to dialogue, although no specific contacts have been confirmed. Beyond external threats, however, South Korea faces another defense challenge that additional spending alone cannot solve: a rapidly shrinking pool of military-age personnel. The 2027 proposal seeks to nearly double the number of full-time reservists from 3,700 to 7,000, expand the use of civilians for noncombat duties and invest more heavily in AI and unmanned systems to reduce reliance on manpower. That demographic pressure has also become central to Seoul's wider debate over military reform. The Defense Ministry is pushing to create a unified Armed Forces Academy by integrating the Army, Navy and Air Force academies. At a recent public hearing, Kim Hong-chul, director general for defense policy at the ministry, said South Korea's pool of available military manpower is projected to shrink from about 349,000 to roughly 204,000 by 2040, forcing the military to reduce its standing force of about 500,000 to somewhere between 350,000 and 400,000. The prospect has intensified debate over whether a smaller military should focus as heavily on improving the quality and specialization of individual personnel as on replacing manpower with technology. Kim Se-jin, secretary-general of defense policy group Mirae Saenggak, argued that population decline makes the capabilities of individual officers more, rather than less, important. "As our population declines, the capabilities of each individual officer become more important in future warfare," he said, arguing for greater specialization in military education rather than consolidation. AJP Takeaways • Korea joins global rearmament: Seoul's proposed 2027 defense budget rises 8.2 percent to a record 73.28 trillion won as China, Japan and European countries also raise military spending. • Drones reshape the spending race: Wars in Ukraine and Iran have exposed the need for both mass-produced attack drones and cheaper defenses against them, pushing Seoul toward drones, lasers and AI-enabled systems. • OPCON drives military investment: Spending tied to wartime operational control transition and self-reliant defense will jump 34.9 percent as South Korea accelerates missile defense, KF-21 production and a nuclear-powered submarine program. • Demographics become a security constraint: A shrinking military-age population is forcing Seoul to rely more heavily on reservists, civilians, AI and unmanned weapons while reopening debate over how the armed forces train future officers. 2026-09-03 18:02:06