▷KOSPI's daily fluctuations reach ±3.9%... The cause of unprecedented volatility is semiconductor concentration and leverage
- This month (from the 1st to the 26th), the KOSPI's average daily fluctuation rate was 3.88%, with three days exceeding 8% movement.
- The sidecar mechanism in the securities market was activated 29 times, surpassing the annual record of 26 times set during the global financial crisis in 2008.
- Circuit breakers were triggered three times in the KOSPI market, marking the first instance of three activations in a single month.
- Despite being triggered during major crises such as the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the circuit breaker was activated only six times from 2000 to last year.
- This year, after two activations in March, the circuit breaker has already been triggered five times, including three times in June alone.
- Analysts attribute the volatility to a concentration of supply and demand in large-cap semiconductor stocks, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounting for 56.48% of the KOSPI's market capitalization as of the 26th.
- The trading volume of 16 single-stock leveraged ETFs on the 26th reached 16.4 trillion won, representing 35.2% of the total ETF trading volume, further amplifying volatility.
- The market is analyzing that a so-called 'short gamma' structure is exacerbating the volatility.
- Financial authorities are indicating plans to establish investor protection measures. The Board of Audit and Inspection is also reviewing the adequacy of supervision by the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service.
◆Major Reports
▷Reasons for Market Concerns Over OpenAI IPO Delay [KB Securities]
- The market is primarily worried that OpenAI's decision to delay its IPO may stem from a potential reduction in token prices that could significantly lower future profitability.
- OpenAI has postponed the public release of GPT-5.6 at the request of the U.S. government, causing delays in the commercialization schedule of its cutting-edge AI models.
- Repeated government restrictions could hinder the stable use of frontier models, potentially weakening customer trust and demand.
- Concurrently, Google is pressuring OpenAI with its affordable and open Gemma 4, while China's Z.ai is promoting its high-performance, low-cost model GLM-5.2.
- Notably, GLM-5.2 offers performance similar to GPT-5.5 at a significantly lower price, triggering price competition.
- Developers and companies are increasingly considering open-source and open-weight AI models due to cost burdens and accessibility issues.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are facing mounting pressure to lower token prices to maintain market share.
- A reduction in token prices could negatively impact OpenAI's revenue and margins, affecting its corporate valuation.
- There is speculation that OpenAI's decision to delay its IPO may be influenced by concerns over declining profitability.
- If OpenAI's price reduction competition materializes, it could lower profitability expectations across the entire AI industry.
◆Major Announcements After Market Close (26th)
▷Sambu Construction's rehabilitation plan approved at the Seoul Rehabilitation Court's creditor meeting
▷Celltrion applies for product approval for CT-P55 (biosimilar of Cosentyx) with the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety
▷Yuil Enertech changes its largest shareholder from Jeong Yeon-gil to Kim Woo-gyeom and five others under a 15 billion won stock transfer agreement
▷Kona I acquires 127,000 of its own shares for 5 billion won
▷Chabio Tech decides on a 1.539 trillion won capital increase for its subsidiary Chah Healthcare
▷Huons completes the absorption merger with Huons Life Science
◆Fund Trends (as of the 25th, excluding ETFs)
▷Domestic equity funds: +146 billion won
▷Overseas equity funds: -33 billion won
◆Key Schedule for Today (29th)
▷ECB Central Bank Forum (until July 1)
▷Korea: 24-hour foreign exchange market pilot trading
▷Japan: May housing starts
▷Spain: June consumer price index (preliminary)
▷Eurozone: June economic expectations index
* This article has been translated by AI.
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