The KOSPI index, which successfully surpassed 7,000 points before the Chuseok holiday, is drawing investor attention regarding its movements after the holiday.
Historical data shows that the domestic stock market tends to exhibit a lackluster performance before the Chuseok holiday, but typically sees an influx of capital and a subsequent rise afterward.
This year, the Chuseok holiday coincides with significant diplomatic events, including the US-China summit, the UN General Assembly, and the Korea-Mexico summit. Investors are advised to consider these key events in their strategies.
According to the Korea Exchange, from 2000 to 2025, the KOSPI rose in 16 out of 25 instances during the five trading days following the Chuseok holiday, outpacing the nine years it declined. The highest increase occurred in 2004, with a rise of 6.65%, while the largest drop was in 2018, at -2.77%. The average increase during this period was 0.51%.
In contrast, the KOSPI fell in 12 of the 25 years during the five trading days leading up to Chuseok, with the average decline at -0.43%.
Over the past decade (2016-2025), the KOSPI has averaged a 0.49% drop before Chuseok but rebounded with a 0.68% increase afterward.
In the last five years (2021-2025), the KOSPI averaged a 0.82% decline before the holiday, followed by a 0.77% rise after.
The pattern of declining before the holiday and rebounding afterward is attributed to a risk-averse sentiment among investors. The extended closure during the Chuseok holiday can leave little time to respond to sudden external risks, prompting investors to reduce their positions in advance.
This year, however, the trend has been different. On the last trading day before the Chuseok holiday, September 23, the KOSPI reached 7,080.92 points, marking a 5.4% increase compared to the previous five trading days' closing price of 6,715.41 points.
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, noted, "Before the holiday, trading days decrease, and with external events looming, there is a tendency for cautious positioning and profit-taking. However, after the holiday, we typically see a rebound due to incoming demand. That said, this capital flow is a short-term factor and has limited impact on the long-term direction of the market."
The most significant event during the holiday period is the US-China summit. On September 24, the two countries agreed to extend a trade tariff truce for two months, marking some progress in their relations. President Yoon Suk Yeol also visited the US for the UN General Assembly, where he discussed various cooperation plans in the shipbuilding sector with President Donald Trump. On the same day, the Korea-Mexico summit addressed various economic cooperation initiatives.
After the Chuseok holiday, several events are expected to influence market direction. On September 30, the US is set to release the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the final GDP figures for the second quarter. Micron will also announce its fourth-quarter earnings. On October 2, the US will release the September employment report and the domestic Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September.
Na Seung-doo, a researcher at SK Securities, stated, "Analyzing the average returns from the past 20 years since 2005, the domestic stock market typically shows a more pronounced upward trend in large-cap stocks compared to the KOSDAQ from Chuseok to year-end. This year, the conditions for large-cap stocks are only partially met amid debates over the semiconductor cycle, and the trends in third-quarter earnings will have a significant impact."
He added, "While foreign and institutional demand remains insufficient, themes are gradually forming around semiconductor equipment and robotics. Given the government's potential to create an environment for institutional net buying based on policies to revitalize the KOSDAQ, it is essential to pay attention to the performance and policy trends of major companies after Chuseok."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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