With one month to go before Taiwan's local elections, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for its anti-China stance, is projected to have an advantage over the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). President Lai Ching-te's approval rating has also risen, reaching its highest level since April of last year.
According to a survey released on October 27 by Taiwan's United Daily News and TVBS, 38.1% of respondents believe the DPP will win at least 11 of the 22 cities and counties in next month's elections. In contrast, 28.7% expect the KMT to achieve similar results, while 30% did not provide a clear answer.
Currently, the KMT governs 15 of Taiwan's 22 cities and counties, while the DPP controls five. The remaining two, Hsinchu City and Kinmen County, are led by independents.
When asked which party they feel more secure leading their local area over the next four years, 43.4% of respondents favored the DPP, compared to 27.1% for the KMT, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, 26.7% either did not care or did not provide a clear answer.
Lai's satisfaction rating stands at 52.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2022. Dissatisfaction has decreased to 37.6%, down 3.5 percentage points, the lowest since December 2024.
In a separate survey measuring favorability among politicians, DPP members scored relatively high. Former President Tsai Ing-wen topped the list at 61.7%, followed by Vice President Lai Ching-te at 49.7%, and DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Bo-yang at 47.8%. KMT figures, including Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen and Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, both scored 36.9%, while Legislative Yuan President You Si-kun received 35%, and KMT Chairman Eric Chu garnered 15.5%.
The polling agency noted that KMT politicians have seen a significant decline in favorability over the past two months, particularly Chiang Wan-an, whose national favorability dropped by 10.9 percentage points during the same period.
Local media have cited controversies surrounding child abuse cases and food safety issues as factors contributing to Chiang's declining popularity.
In contrast, Shen Bo-yang has been expanding his support base through a focus on livelihood policies and active campaigning. In Taiwan, the term 'Yangliu' has emerged, referring to the 'Shen Bo-yang wave,' symbolizing his rising political momentum. Shen, a security expert, has been designated by the Chinese government as a 'hardline Taiwan independence element' and is subject to sanctions.
The local elections, scheduled for November 28, will elect officials for nine different positions, including mayors and county magistrates, and are referred to as the 'Nine-in-One' elections. This election serves as a midterm evaluation of President Lai Ching-te and the ruling DPP, and it is also seen as a test of each party's support base and political influence ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.